Mar 2017 SWCO - ENSO Tracker
Oceanic and atmospheric indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are currently neutral (Figs. 1-2), and most forecast agencies predict they will remain so through spring 2017. These agencies also forecast that El Niño conditions could return in mid-to-late 2017, but given the uncertainty of ENSO forecasts associated with the “spring predictability barrier,” we can get only a general sense now of the range of outcomes likely later this year (i.e. La Niña is basically off the table). More detailed information about the timing or intensity of a possible El Niño will start to become available in late spring or early summer. (read more)