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From the November issue of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

Water year precipitation (October 1, 2015 to September 30, 2016) was below average in much of the Southwest, particularly in Southern California, most of southern Arizona, and western New Mexico, and average to above average in northern Arizona and eastern New Mexico (Fig. 1). Spatial representations of cumulative water year precipitation adequately characterize the overall distribution of above- and below-average precipitation totals, but they do little to document the month-by-month accumulation of precipitation. This can be important, as heavy precipitation events such as tropical storm activity or monsoon events can quickly boost yearly totals, but with a lesser contribution to long-term water storage (as water from extreme events is lost to evaporation and runoff).

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From the November issue of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

Precipitation & Temperature: October precipitation totals were below average across most of the climate divisions in Arizona and New Mexico, except for parts of western Arizona and central New Mexico (Fig. 1a). October temperatures were much above average across all of the two states, with record-warm observations in southern and eastern New Mexico (Fig. 1b). November precipitation to date has been buoyed by storm events that pushed in as part of a cutoff low. This rainfall may boost the percent of average precipitation calculations to impressive numbers, but the actual amount of rain that has fallen has been relatively meager (Fig. 2). In terms of regional climate, November tends to be one of the drier months. November temperatures have continued the trend observed in October (“Hot-tober”), ranging from 2 to 8 degrees F above normal across most of Arizona and New Mexico, a pattern that extends across the Intermountain West (Fig. 3).

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It takes ten years to grow trees but a hundred years to educate a person--Chinese Proverb

On the Loess Plateau

Agriculture has always been a crucial part of the Chinese identity and cultural heritage. At the heart of China, where agriculture began to flourish, is the Loess Plateau, which has taken millions of years to be blown in by the wind, and known as ‘cradle of Chinese civilization’. The Loess Plateau covers an area 2.5 times the size of UK, and is stripped away by the mighty Yellow River, a raging torrent which washes up to 1.6 billion tons of soil downstream every year (Williams 2010).

Researchers, practitioners, and policy makers in China and around the globe have been working on soil and water conservation on Loess Plateau since the dawn of 20th Century. From the eastern part of Loess Plateau, climate transitioned from semi-arid to arid to the inner west. Facing the encroaching desertification from the deserts to the northwest, and the massive urbanization projects within the region, rural farmers on the Loess Plateau are torn between conservation, mechanization, and economic development. (read more)

From the October issue of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

In the last month, oceanic and atmospheric indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have pushed forecasts back towards an increased likelihood of a La Niña event this winter (Figs. 1-2). Models are indicating an increased possibility of these conditions sustaining through winter 2017, leading to greater certainty regarding the formation of a weak La Niña event in late 2016 or early 2017. However, the chance of an ENSO-neutral winter cannot be entirely ruled out. Fluctuations in forecasts and models are likely due to the limited coordination between oceanic and atmospheric conditions described in previous outlooks, as well as generally borderline conditions between weak La Niña and ENSO-neutral.

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Climate Summary from the September issue of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

The southwestern monsoon is characterized by spatial and temporal variability. Storm events are interspersed with breaks of limited activity as migrating high pressure systems and available moisture dictates where in the Southwest rain might fall. This results in highly variable precipitation totals on a daily or weekly timescale. Regional climatology gives some indication as to the expected cumulative total precipitation any location might expect but says less about how those precipitation totals will be achieved. Any given year of monsoon activity is difficult to categorize on a week-to-week basis, and simple score-carding using seasonal precipitation to date will be skewed by recent runs of heavy rain or extended breaks in the monsoon. Totals should even out over the course of the season and vary around the long-term average, but outliers and extremes are always possible. 

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