May Precipitation and Temperature: May precipitation was mostly above average to record wettest in Arizona, and New Mexico ranged from below average to much above average but most of the state was average or above-average (Fig. 1a). May temperatures were below average or much below average across most of the Southwest (Fig. 1b). (read more)
Forecast Roundup: Seasonal outlooks are based on the persistence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies consistent with a weak El Niño event (Figs. 1-2), along with the presence of other atmospheric and oceanic indicators (convective anomalies, sub-surface temperatures). On June 10, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) noted persistent SST anomalies along with atmospheric and sub-surface indicators of El Niño, and called for a 70-percent chance of these conditions continuing into summer, and a 60-percent chance to last into fall. On June 11, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintained their ENSO Outlook at watch status, calling for a 50-percent chance of an El Niño event in 2019. (read more)
