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El Niño conditions continued their active decline (Figs. 1-2), and consensus is that they have reached ENSO-neutral status at the time of this writing. Forecast discussions focused on the decline of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies that characterize an El Niño event—convective activity, equatorial sea surface temperatures, and trade winds—and forecasters saw consistent evidence of a return to ENSO-neutral status across these indicators. Seasonal ENSO outlooks coalesced around La Niña conditions emerging by summer or fall 2016, with relatively high certainty that La Niña conditions would be in place sometime by mid-to-late 2016. (read more)

El Niño Recap & La Niña Outlook

This El Niño event was one of the strongest ever recorded (Fig. 5), and if past performance was any indication of what was expected for the Southwest, the region should have seen above-average precipitation over much of the cool season (winter and spring). The Southwest generally saw lower-than-expected precipitation totals that were much closer to average, or even below average in some cases.  There are several reasons why this event did not meet expectations. (read more)

Originally published in the May 2016 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

Precipitation & Temperature: Across most of the Southwest, April 2016 precipitation totals were above average (Fig 1a) and temperatures were average to above average (Fig 1b). Over the past 30 days, the Southwest experienced a minor cooling trend, with much of the region recording below-average temperatures (Fig. 2a) and a mix of above- and below-average precipitation (Fig. 2b). Increased rainfall and below-average temperatures are a welcome, albeit temporary, break from the typical warming and drying trend observed in late spring and early summer.

In the Mar 2016 issue of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook (SWCO)

Southwest Climate Summary & Recap (this post - read more)

• Precipitation & Temperature
• Drought, Snowpack & Water Supply
• El Niño Tracker
• Environmental Health and Safety (including wildfire)
• Precipitation & Temperature Forecast Summaries

Also in this issue: 

• Maps & Images
• El Niño Tracker - March 2016
• Reservoir Volumes: Arizona & New Mexico
• Rio Grande-Bravo Outlook

Image Source - Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Image Source - NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information

Originally Published in the Feb 2016, CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

• Climate Summary
• Maps & Images
• El Niño Tracker - February 2016
• Arizona & New Mexico Reservoir Volumes
• Introducing - Rio Grande-Bravo Climate Outlook