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From the October issue of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

The Southwest saw the first strong burst of widespread monsoon activity near the end of June, followed by a break in monsoon activity over the first half of July as atmospheric circulation patterns and lack of available moisture limited opportunities for widespread storms to develop, especially at lower elevations.  By mid-to-late July, increasingly favorable conditions helped storms to form and spread, culminating in an extended period of widespread activity during late July and early August. Tropical Storm Javier helped jumpstart activity again in mid-August, providing a brief extension to storm activity via a surge of moisture from the Gulf of California. The remainder of August and September saw a decline in widespread monsoon activity, even while numerous areas did receive intermittent precipitation, particularly at higher elevations. On September 7, Hurricane Newton generated significant precipitation in a swath across southwestern Arizona and into central New Mexico. Finally, portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico saw a run of storms linked to a cutoff low in late September.

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Climate Summary from the September issue of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

Oceanic and atmospheric indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remain in the range of neutral conditions (Figs. 1-2). In the last month, seasonal forecasts and models further reduced their certainty of a weak La Niña event forming in late 2016 or early 2017. The current projections find ENSO-neutral conditions to be the most likely outcome for this fall and winter, although the chance of a weak La Niña event cannot be ruled out. As past outlooks have noted, there was ongoing uncertainty regarding the prospects for La Niña, especially as it appeared to be having difficulty organizing, with limited coordination between ocean and atmosphere.

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The Southwest saw the first strong burst of widespread monsoon activity near the end of June.  Most of the first half of July was characterized by a distinct break in monsoon activity, as atmospheric circulation patterns and lack of available moisture limited opportunities for widespread storms to develop, especially at lower elevations.  As July progressed, there were increasingly favorable conditions for storms to develop and spread, culminating in an extended period of widespread activity during late July and early August. Tropical Storm Javier helped jumpstart activity in mid-August, just as the previously mentioned extended run was winding down, and provided a brief extension to storm activity via a surge of moisture from the Gulf of California. The remainder of the monsoon window will be a waiting game to see if favorable moisture and atmospheric circulation patterns develop, as well as the potential influence of eastern Pacific tropical storm activity that could supplement storm activity and provide additional moisture to fuel storm activity. (read more)

Precipitation and Temperature: July precipitation totals were below average across most of Arizona and New Mexico in the past 30 days (Fig. 1a), due in part to an extended break in monsoon activity. July temperatures were above average across nearly the entire region (Fig. 1b), linked to global trends that saw record-warm temperatures in 2016 and to regional patterns of warmer and drier conditions that correspond to the aforementioned break in monsoon activity. August precipitation to date is average to above average for most of Arizona and portions of New Mexico (Fig. 2), partly linked to moisture associated with Tropical Storm Javier that resulted in heavy precipitation in parts of the Southwest. In August, temperatures have been mostly average to below average in Arizona and mostly above average in New Mexico (Fig. 3). (read more)

All oceanic and atmospheric indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have returned to neutral conditions (Figs. 1-2). The development of a La Niña event in 2016 remains a distinct possibility, even while the timing and intensity remain relatively uncertain. (read more)