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Precipitation & Temperature: March precipitation totals were average to below average in most of the Southwest except for the northeastern corner of New Mexico (Fig. 1a). March temperatures were much-above average across the entire Southwest, with record warm temperatures in the southeast corner of Arizona and most of New Mexico (Fig. 1b). April precipitation to date has been below average for much of southern Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 2), while April temperatures have been between 0 and 6 degrees above normal for most of the region. Water year precipitation has been normal to above normal for most of Arizona and New Mexico, aside from a dry region along much of the Arizona-Mexico border (Fig. 3). (read more)

This event began in fall 2016, ended in early February 2017, and throughout the period oceanic and atmospheric indicators generally hovered near the boundary between weak La Niña and ENSO-neutral conditions. According to CPC criteria, this was a weak La Niña event (but just barely); other agencies use slightly different criteria (see last month's ENSO tracker for details), highlighting the difficulty in categorizing these borderline events. This weak strength also affects how precipitation and temperature patterns are interpreted. In the Southwest, a La Niña event is more likely than not to bring warmer- and drier-than-average conditions over the cool season, but a weak La Niña event might not even stand out from the normal seasonal variation of typically dry southwestern winters (Fig. 5).

So how did this La Niña event stack up compared to expectations? (read more)

Precipitation & Temperature: February precipitation totals were average to above average in Arizona and ranged from below to above average in New Mexico (Fig. 1a). February temperatures were much-above average across most of region, including record warmest temperatures in eastern New Mexico (Fig. 1b). March precipitation to date has been dry across the Southwest, reversing the wet trends of early winter (Fig. 2a). March temperatures have also been above average across the Southwest (Fig. 2b), including a run of near-record temperatures at the time of this writing. Water-year precipitation and temperature are both above average across much of the Southwest (Fig. 3). (read more)

Originally published in the Feb 2017 CLIMAS Southwest Climate Outlook

Precipitation & Temperature: January precipitation totals were above average in Arizona, and in New Mexico they ranged from much-above average to record wettest (Fig. 1a). January temperatures were average to above average in Arizona, and above average in New Mexico (Fig. 1b). February precipitation to date has been variable across the West. In Arizona, it has been mostly below average; in New Mexico, a few large pockets have received impressive precipitation; and widespread activity has occurred across Northern California and the upper Great Basin (Fig. 2a). February temperatures have been well-above average across the southern two-thirds of the western U.S., with particularly warm temperatures in parts of Utah and Colorado (Fig. 2b). Water-year precipitation is average to above average across most of the Southwest except for southern Arizona and much of southeastern New Mexico (Fig. 3). (read more)

Precipitation & Temperature: December precipitation totals for the past 30 days were above average to much above average in Arizona’s climate divisions and were mostly above average in New Mexico’s climate divisions (Fig. 1a). December temperatures were much above average across most of southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, with mostly above-average temperatures across the remainder of the two states (Fig. 1b). A number of storm systems in so far 2017 have brought well above-average moisture to the region, although portions of Arizona have missed out on this precipitation (Fig. 2). January temperatures have been warmer than average across the Southwest and colder than average across the Northwest. (read more)