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Forecast Roundup: Seasonal outlooks are based on the persistence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies consistent with a weak El Niño event (Figs. 1-2), along with the presence of other atmospheric and oceanic indicators (convective anomalies, sub-surface temperatures). On June 10, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) noted persistent SST anomalies along with atmospheric and sub-surface indicators of El Niño, and called for a 70-percent chance of these conditions continuing into summer, and a 60-percent chance to last into fall. On June 11, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintained their ENSO Outlook at watch status, calling for a 50-percent chance of an El Niño event in 2019. (read more)

Seasonal outlooks highlight persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies consistent with a weak El Niño event (Figs. 1-2), while other atmospheric and oceanic indicators such as convective anomalies and sub-surface temperatures are less definitive. The so-called ‘spring predictability barrier’ further limits certainty. Forecast discussions focus on how long the event will last and the potential for a second year of El Niño. (read more)

El Niño Tracker: Seasonal outlooks and forecasts emphasize clear atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are consistent with a weak El Niño event, and the discussion has shifted to how long the event will last. On Apr. 10, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) highlighted that El Niño conditions had persisted in March, and with an 80-percent chance of these conditions lasting until summer. On Apr. 11, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) maintained their El Niño advisory, identifying both oceanic and atmospheric conditions consistent with a weak El Niño event. (read more)

El Niño Tracker: Seasonal outlooks have mostly converged on forecasts that emphasize atmospheric and oceanic conditions consistent with a weak El Niño event. This is expected to last through spring, with a chance for a longer event if these conditions persist through summer and into fall. On Mar. 11, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) maintained their assertion of the presence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific and called for a 70-percent chance of these conditions lasting until summer 2019. On Mar. 14, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) maintained their El Niño advisory, given the convergence of oceanic and atmospheric conditions, as well as warm subsurface waters on the way, and their outlook jumped to an 80-percent chance of an El Niño lasting through spring (and 60-percent through summer). On Mar. 19, the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look (Fig. 1). (read more)

After months of El Niño on the horizon (but each month not appearing to get any closer), forecasters have identi ed the convergence of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that indicate the presence of a weak El Niño event. This is expected to last through spring, although there is not complete agreement across the international agencies. On Feb. 12, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) maintained their assertion of the presence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific and called for a 70-percent chance of these conditions lasting until summer 2019. (read more)