edriesen's blog

Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker -March 2021

edriesen — Mon, 22 Mar 2021 07:00:00 +0000

Monday, March 22, 2021

Sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly forecasts point to normal or slightly below normal conditions across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The current anomalies show a similar pattern, as they continue to move towards neutral conditions (Fig. 2). International climate outlooks reflect this trend, and see La Niña conditions waning along with winter, and returning to ENSO-neutral conditions over spring 2021.

Forecast Roundup: On Mar 10, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) maintained its observation of an ongoing La Niña, with an 80-percent chance that conditions “will fade into ENSO-neutral” by spring. On Mar 11, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO status was at La Niña Advisory. The CPC called for a 60-percent chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring. On Mar 11, the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look (Fig. 3), noting “most key atmospheric variables are consistent with continued La Niña conditions.” On Mar 16, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was at official La Niña status, but stated “La Niña is nearing its end.” They highlighted neutral oceanic conditions, and “a number of atmospheric indicators (that) remain at La Niña levels.” They emphasized this could cause La Niña precipitation patterns to stick around a little longer. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (solid and dashed black line, Fig. 4) indicates La Niña conditions are expected to return to ENSO-neutral conditions over the next few months.

Summary: La Niña conditions are present and should remain in place through spring. The monthly and seasonal climate outlooks reflect these conditions, with forecasts of mostly drier than normal conditions in the Southwest over the same period. Storm activity in the Southwest (including heavy snow) means this La Niña feels less extreme compared to years with nearly zero winter precipitation. Despite these events, this winter is following an expected pattern with less frequent precipitation events and lower seasonal totals compared to normal (see Fig. 3 on p 2). There are exceptions, but this is a pretty robust and predictable outcome in the U.S. Southwest for La Niña.

Online Resources

Figures 1 - Australian Bureau of Meteorology - bom.gov.au/climate/enso
Figure 2 - NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Figure 3 - International Research Institute for Climate and Society - iri.columbia.edu
Figure 4 - NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Blog Category:

All Posts

Front Page Feature?:

Yes - Front Page

ENSOHUB:

Not part of ENSO Hub

MONSOONHUB:

Unrelated to SW Monsoon

DROUGHTHUB:

Non-Drought Hub Related

Southwest Climate Outlook March 2021 - Climate Summary

edriesen — Mon, 22 Mar 2021 07:00:00 +0000

Monday, March 22, 2021

Monthly Precipitation and Temperature: February precipitation was mostly below average to record driest in Arizona and near average across most of New Mexico (Fig. 1a). February temperatures ranged between average and above average in most of Arizona and between average and below average in most of New Mexico (Fig. 1b).

Winter Precipitation and Temperature: Dec-Feb Precipitation ranks were average to below average across most of the Southwest, with a few pockets of much below average (Fig. 2a). Temperature ranks for the same period were average to above average across most of Arizona, and mostly average in New Mexico, with some pockets of both above and below average (Fig. 2b). Precipitation totals from stations around the region demonstrate the below normal precipitation conditions this winter (Fig. 3).

Drought: Water year precipitation to date (as of Feb 28, 2021) reveals widespread below normal and much below normal conditions across the Southwest, along with a large cluster of record driest in the CA/NV/AZ region (Fig. 4). The U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) is mostly unchanged over the last month in the U.S. Southwest (Fig. 5). This is partly because much of the region is at the highest drought category (D4, Exceptional Drought): In Arizona and New Mexico, over 50-percent of the region is in D4, and over 80-percent is in at least D3 (Extreme Drought).

Snowpack and Water Supply: Snow water equivalent (SWE) is well below the 1981-2010 median for much of the region (see the NRCS website for details). Streamflow forecasts reflect this reality and are well below median across most of the Southwest (Fig. 6). Most of the reservoirs in the region are at or below the values recorded at this time last year. Most are below their long-term average (see Arizona and New Mexico reservoir storage).

ENSO Tracker: La Niña conditions are present and are expected to continue through spring (see ENSO-tracker for details). Despite some winter storm activity (including some impressive snow totals), the expectation remains for cumulative cool season precipitation totals to be below average for much of the Southwest.

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast: The three-month outlook for Apr through Jun calls for increased chances for below-normal precipitation across most of the southwestern U.S., with a swath of increased chances of above-normal precipitation extending from central Mexico into southeastern Arizona (Fig. 7, top). The three-month temperature outlook calls for increased chances of above-normal temperatures across the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico (Fig. 7, bottom).

Online Resources

Figures 1, 2 - National Centers for Environmental Information - ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
Figure 3 - Climate Assessment for the Southwest - climas.arizona.edu
Figure 4 - West Wide Drought Tracker - wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt
Figure 5 - U.S. Drought Monitor - droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Figure 6 - National Resource Conservation Service - nrcs.usda.gov
Figure 7 - International Research Institute for Climate and Society - iri.columbia.edu

Blog Category:

All Posts

Front Page Feature?:

Yes - Front Page

ENSOHUB:

Not part of ENSO Hub

MONSOONHUB:

Unrelated to SW Monsoon

DROUGHTHUB:

Non-Drought Hub Related

Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - February 2021

edriesen — Mon, 22 Feb 2021 07:00:00 +0000

Monday, February 22, 2021

Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts for February – April 2021 call for below normal conditions across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). These forecasts and the current anomalies (Fig. 2) are pointing towards a gradual return to neutral conditions. International climate outlooks generally reflect this trend, and see La Niña conditions persisting through winter 2020-2021 before returning to normal conditions over spring 2021.

Forecast Roundup: On Feb 10, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) maintained its observation of an ongoing La Niña event, and with an 80-percent chance that these conditions “will fade into ENSO-neutral” by spring. On Feb 11, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO status was at La Niña Advisory. The CPC called for a 60-percent chance of transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer. On Feb 11, the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look (Fig. 3), noting a “majority of the model forecasts predict SSTs to be cooler than the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring”. On Feb 16, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was at official La Niña status and highlighted persistent La Niña conditions that were likely to return to neutral over the spring. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (solid and dashed black line, Fig. 4) indicates La Niña conditions are expected to return towards ENSO-neutral conditions over the next few months.

Summary: La Niña conditions are present and should remain in place through winter and into early spring. Not unexpectedly given the La Niña status, the monthly and seasonal climate outlooks continue to forecast drier than normal conditions in the Southwest over the same period. La Niña does not mean zero precipitation, but does typically mean less frequent precipitation events and lower seasonal totals. There are exceptions to this pattern, but it is one of the more robust and predictable outcomes in the U.S. Southwest.

Online Resources

Figures 1 - Australian Bureau of Meteorology - bom.gov.au/climate/enso
Figure 2 - NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Figure 3 - International Research Institute for Climate and Society - iri.columbia.edu
Figure 4 - NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Blog Category:

All Posts

Front Page Feature?:

Yes - Front Page

ENSOHUB:

Not part of ENSO Hub

MONSOONHUB:

Unrelated to SW Monsoon

DROUGHTHUB:

Non-Drought Hub Related

Southwest Climate Outlook February 2021 - Climate Summary

edriesen — Mon, 22 Feb 2021 07:00:00 +0000

Monday, February 22, 2021

Monthly Precipitation and Temperature: January precipitation was average to above average across most of Arizona and below average to above average in most of New Mexico (Fig. 1). January temperatures ranged between average and above average in most of Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 2). Precipitation ranks for the last two months show most of the Southwest at or below normal (Fig. 2), while temperatures for the same period were mostly at or above normal (Fig. 3).

Drought: Water year precipitation reveals a widespread pattern of below normal and much below normal conditions across the Southwest (Fig. 4). The Feb 9 U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) for the U.S. Southwest showed some improvement in parts of Arizona after the precipitation activity in January (Fig. 5), but still has a majority of the region classified as experiencing extreme drought (D3) or exceptional drought (D4).

Snowpack and Water Supply: Snow water equivalent (SWE) is well below the 1981-2010 median for much of the region (see the NRCS website for details), and streamflow forecasts are similarly lagging behind (Fig. 6). Many of the reservoirs in the region are at or below the values recorded at this time last year. Most are below their long-term average (see Arizona and New Mexico reservoir storage).

ENSO Tracker: La Niña conditions are present and are expected to continue through winter (see ENSO-tracker). Despite a run of storms in January, the expectation is for cumulative cool-season totals to be below average for much of the Southwest. This will almost certainly intensify the current drought conditions.

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast: The three-month outlook for Mar through May calls for increased chances for below-normal precipitation across the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico (Fig. 7, top). The three-month temperature outlook calls for increased chances of abovenormal temperatures across much of the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico (Fig. 7, bottom).

Online Resources

Figures 1, 2 - West Wide Drought Tracker - wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt
Figure 3 - National Centers for Environmental Information - ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
Figure 4 - U.S. Drought Monitor - droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Figure 5, 6 - National Resource Conservation Service - nrcs.usda.gov
Figure 7 - International Research Institute for Climate and Society - iri.columbia.edu

Blog Category:

All Posts

Front Page Feature?:

Yes - Front Page

ENSOHUB:

Not part of ENSO Hub

MONSOONHUB:

Unrelated to SW Monsoon

DROUGHTHUB:

Non-Drought Hub Related

Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - January 2021

edriesen — Mon, 04 Jan 2021 07:00:00 +0000

Monday, January 4, 2021

Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts for February 2021 call for below-normal conditions across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), extending the trend of the last 4-5 months (Fig. 2). International climate outlooks generally see La Niña conditions persisting through winter 2020-2021 before returning to ENSO-neutral conditions over spring 2021.

Forecast Roundup: On Jan 12, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) maintained its observation of an ongoing La Niña event, and with a 50-percent chance of this event either continuing or a return to ENSO-neutral conditions. On Jan 14, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO status was at La Niña Advisory. The CPC called for a 95-percent chance of La Niña continuing through March and a 55-percent chance of transition to neutral during late spring or early summer. On Jan 14, the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look (Fig. 3), noting “the east-central Pacific is roughly 1.2 degrees C below average, and all key atmospheric variables are consistent with La Niña conditions”. On Jan 19, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was at official La Niña status and noted, “La Niña is likely to have reached its peak with respect to sea surface temperature patterns in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean”, but that impacts are expected to persist into spring. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (solid and dashed black line, Fig. 4) indicates moderate La Niña conditions are expected for the next few months, with a return towards ENSO-neutral conditions by late spring or early summer.

Summary: La Niña conditions are present and likely to remain in place through winter or early spring. The monthly and seasonal climate outlooks suggest drier than normal conditions over the same period, consistent with La Niña events in the U.S. Southwest. Drier than normal does not mean zero precipitation, however (for example, there is a large event forecast for the region at the time of this writing). Still, the likely outcome would be less frequent events and lower seasonal totals, consistent with long-term averages for La Niña winters.

Online Resources

Figures 1 - Australian Bureau of Meteorology - bom.gov.au/climate/enso
Figure 2 - NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Figure 3 - International Research Institute for Climate and Society - iri.columbia.edu
Figure 4 - NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Blog Category:

All Posts

Front Page Feature?:

Yes - Front Page

ENSOHUB:

Not part of ENSO Hub

MONSOONHUB:

Unrelated to SW Monsoon

DROUGHTHUB:

Non-Drought Hub Related

Southwest Climate Outlook January 2021 - Climate Summary

edriesen — Mon, 04 Jan 2021 07:00:00 +0000

Monday, January 4, 2021

December Precipitation and Temperature: Precipitation was near normal to record driest across most of Arizona and New Mexico in December (Fig. 1), while temperatures ranged between above and below normal in most of Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 2).

2020 Precipitation and Temperature: Annual precipitation totals ranged between below average and record driest in Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 3a). Mean annual temperature was much above average in most of the Southwest, with a few pockets of record warmest (Fig. 3b). See Fig. 1 highlighting daily, record, and normal high and low temperatures, for select weather stations from around the region.

Drought: The Jan 12 U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) for the U.S. Southwest ranges from moderate drought (D1) to exceptional drought (D4), but a vast majority of the region is in D3 or D4 (Fig. 4).

Snowpack and Water Supply: Snow water equivalent (SWE) data from the NRCS highlights how snow conditions deviate from the 1981-2010 median (Fig. 5). Many of the region’s reservoirs are at or below the values recorded at this time last year, and most are also below their long-term average (see Arizona and New Mexico reservoir storage). The implications for the current conditions and the La Niña forecast are also reflected in streamflow forecasts (Fig. 6).

ENSO Tracker: Moderate La Niña conditions are present and are expected to continue through winter (see ENSO-tracker for details). If the region records below-average precipitation, as is forecast in most monthly and seasonal outlooks (see below, Fig. 7), this does not bode well for drought conditions in the Southwest.

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast: The three-month outlook for Feb through Apr calls for increased chances for below-normal precipitation across the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico (Fig. 7, top). The three-month temperature outlook calls for increased chances of above normal temperatures across much of the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico (Fig. 7, bottom).

Online Resources

Figures 1, 2 - West Wide Drought Tracker - wrcc.dri.edu/wwdt
Figure 3 - National Centers for Environmental Information - ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc
Figure 4 - U.S. Drought Monitor - droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Figure 5, 6 - National Resource Conservation Service - nrcs.usda.gov
Figure 7 - International Research Institute for Climate and Society - iri.columbia.edu

Blog Category:

All Posts

Front Page Feature?:

Yes - Front Page

ENSOHUB:

Not part of ENSO Hub

MONSOONHUB:

Unrelated to SW Monsoon

DROUGHTHUB:

Non-Drought Hub Related

Southwest Climate Outlook December 2020 - Climate Summary

edriesen — Fri, 04 Dec 2020 07:00:00 +0000

Friday, December 4, 2020

Monthly Precipitation and Temperature: November precipitation was average to below average across most of Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 1a). November temperatures were above average to much above average in most of Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 1b), with a pocket of record warm conditions in west Texas. The daily average temperature anomalies for Nov. 1 – Dec. 12 (Fig. 2) highlight the fluctuations at select stations around the region.

Fall 2020 Precipitation and Temperature: Total precipitation percentile for fall 2020 (Sept-Oct-Nov) ranged between below average and record driest in Arizona, and between average and record driest in New Mexico (Fig. 3a). Mean temperature for the same period (Sept-Oct-Nov 2020) was between above average and record warmest in most of the Southwest (Fig. 3b).

Drought: The Dec. 8 U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) expanded drought characterizations in the Southwest. Continuation of dry conditions (e.g. driest June-Nov period on record for AZ and second driest for NM) have led to continued degradation in drought conditions across the Southwest to the most intense category D4 across much of AZ and NM. Most of Arizona and over half of New Mexico is categorized as experiencing exceptional drought (D4) (Fig. 4).

Snowpack and Water Supply: The SnowView map from the University Arizona shows the Snow Water Artificial Neural Network (SWANN) estimate of snow water equivalent (SWE) across Arizona and New Mexico as of Dec 12, 2020 (Fig. 5). The anomaly map (Fig. 6) highlights how station observations and basin estimates of SWE deviate from 1981-2010 median values. Many of the reservoirs in the region are at or below the values recorded at this time last year. Most are below their long-term average (see Arizona and New Mexico reservoir storage).

ENSO Tracker: La Niña conditions are present and are expected to continue through winter (see ENSO tracker for details). If the region records below-average precipitation, as is forecast in most monthly and seasonal outlooks (see below), this does not bode well for drought conditions in the Southwest.

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast: The three-month outlook for January through March calls for increased chances for below-normal precipitation across the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico (Fig. 7, top). The three-month temperature outlook calls for increased chances of above-normal temperatures across much of the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico (Fig. 7, bottom).

Online Resources

Figures 1, 3 - National Centers for Environmental Information - ncei.noaa.gov
Figure 2 - Climate Assessment for the Southwest - climas.arizona.edu
Figure 4 - U.S. Drought Monitor - droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Figure 5 - University of Arizona SnowView - climate.arizona.edu/snowview
Figure 6 - National Resource Conservation Service - nrcs.usda.gov
Figure 7 - International Research Institute for Climate and Society - iri.columbia.edu

Blog Category:

All Posts

Front Page Feature?:

Yes - Front Page

ENSOHUB:

Not part of ENSO Hub

MONSOONHUB:

Unrelated to SW Monsoon

DROUGHTHUB:

Non-Drought Hub Related

Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - December 2020

edriesen — Fri, 04 Dec 2020 07:00:00 +0000

Friday, December 4, 2020

Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts for Jan 2021 are below normal across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), extending the trend of the last 4-5 months (Fig. 2). Climate outlooks generally have La Niña conditions persisting through winter 2020-2021 before returning to normal conditions over spring 2021.

Forecast Roundup: On Dec 8, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was at official La Niña status and noted: “oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflect a mature La Nina with little variation…(suggesting) the event will peak at moderate levels”. On Dec 10, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) maintained its forecast of a 90-percent chance of La Niña conditions through winter. On Dec 10, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO status was at La Niña Advisory. The CPC called for a 95-percent chance of La Niña continuing through March and a 50-percent chance of transition to neutral during late spring or early summer. On Dec 10, the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look (Fig. 3), noting “the east-central Pacific is roughly 1 degree C below average, and all key atmospheric variables are consistent with La Niña conditions”. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (solid and dashed black line, Fig. 4) indicates moderate La Niña conditions for the next few months, with a shift to ENSO-neutral by late spring or early summer.

Summary: La Niña conditions are present and according to most ENSO forecasts and outlooks, they look to remain in place through winter or early spring. The monthly and seasonal climate outlooks suggest drier than normal conditions over winter. This would exacerbate the precipitation deficits already observed over the last six months (Jun-Nov): a period that was record driest for Arizona and second driest for New Mexico. The seasonal totals during La Niña events are often lower than average (see next page for detailed plots of cool-season precipitation). This of course does not mean zero precipitation will fall, but the likely outcome would be less frequent events and lower seasonal totals if the typical pattern for a La Niña winter pans out.

Online Resources

Figures 1 - Australian Bureau of Meteorology - bom.gov.au/climate/enso
Figure 2 - NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Figure 3 - International Research Institute for Climate and Society - iri.columbia.edu
Figure 4 - NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Blog Category:

All Posts

Front Page Feature?:

Yes - Front Page

ENSOHUB:

Not part of ENSO Hub

MONSOONHUB:

Unrelated to SW Monsoon

DROUGHTHUB:

Non-Drought Hub Related

Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - November 2020

edriesen — Wed, 04 Nov 2020 07:00:00 +0000

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts for December through February call for below normal conditions across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), extending the trend of the last 3-4 months (Fig. 2). International climate outlooks describe La Niña conditions as forecast to remain a La Niña event through winter 2020.

Forecast Roundup: On Nov 10, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology was at official La Niña status and noted that models still indicate the possibility of it reaching strong status, and likely to peak in Dec 2020 or Jan 2021. On Nov 10, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) maintained its forecast at a 90-percent chance of La Nina conditions to last through winter 2020-2021. On Nov 12, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) ENSO status was at La Niña Advisory. The CPC called for an 95-percent chance of La Niña continuing through winter 2020-2021 and a 65-percent chance of lasting through May 2021. On Nov 12, the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look (Fig. 3), noting “A large majority of the model forecasts exceeds the threshold of La Niña SST conditions through the winter, dissipating during spring”. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (solid and dashed black line, Fig. 4) is in moderate to borderline-strong La Niña territory for the next few months, and projections indicate conditions will remain La Niña through at least winter 2020-2021.

Summary: Moderate La Niña conditions are present, and most forecasts and outlooks call for these conditions to last through winter and possibly well into spring, with a possibility of a strong event. La Niña events tend to result in drier than normal conditions over winter (see details on following page), a pattern also currently found in most monthly and seasonal climate outlooks. If this forecast for a drier than normal winter is correct, it will further exacerbate the precipitation deficits from the monsoon and bring about the uncommon circumstances where consecutive periods of rainfall for the Southwest (in this case, summer 2020, then winter 2020-2021) are both drier than average.

Online Resources

Figures 1 - Australian Bureau of Meteorology - bom.gov.au/climate/enso
Figure 2 - NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Figure 3 - International Research Institute for Climate and Society - iri.columbia.edu
Figure 4 - NOAA - Climate Prediction Center - cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Blog Category:

All Posts

Front Page Feature?:

Yes - Front Page

ENSOHUB:

Not part of ENSO Hub

MONSOONHUB:

Unrelated to SW Monsoon

DROUGHTHUB:

Non-Drought Hub Related

Southwest Climate Outlook November 2020 - Climate Summary

edriesen — Wed, 04 Nov 2020 07:00:00 +0000

Wednesday, November 4, 2020

Monthly Precipitation and Temperature: October precipitation ranged from record driest to below average in most of Arizona and from below average to above average in most of New Mexico (Fig. 1a). October temperatures were above average to record warmest in Arizona and near average to record warmest in most of New Mexico (Fig. 1b). The daily average temperature anomalies for Oct. 1 – Nov. 15 (Fig. 2) highlight the fluctuations at select stations around the region (see detailed station data).

Annual Precipitation and Temperature: 2020 total precipitation percentiles for Jan-Oct ranged between record driest and below average in most of Arizona and New Mexico, with a similar pattern across most of the Southwest (Fig. 3a). 2020 mean temperature percentiles for Jan-Oct were above average to record warmest across the Southwest (Fig. 3b).

Drought: The Nov 10 U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) showed widespread areas of extreme drought (D3) and growing pockets of exceptional drought (D4) across Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, Utah, and Colorado (Fig. 4). A major driver for this drought characterization was well below average monsoon precipitation, lagging fall precipitation, and accumulated long term precipitation deficits. Unlike in some years, the Southwest did not see substantial incursions of moisture from tropical storm activity (Fig. 5).

Snowpack and Water Supply: Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) as of Nov 15, 2020 was highly variable across Arizona and New Mexico (Fig. 6). This reflects some areas with early storm activity and other areas lagging behind normal. Note: these basin average and station SWE maps are sensitive to early season storms that can boost totals relative to long term averages, or lag behind owing to slow starts to seasonal precipitation. They will however, provide more meaningful information as the winter season progresses. Many of the reservoirs in the region are at or below the values recorded at this time last year. Most are below their long-term average (see Arizona and New Mexico reservoir storage).

ENSO Tracker: Moderate La Niña conditions are present and expected to last through winter, with a chance of a strong event, resulting in clear signals in seasonal outlooks (see ENSO-tracker).

Precipitation and Temperature Forecast: The three-month outlook for Dec through Feb calls for increased chances for below-normal precipitation across the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico (Fig. 7, top). The three-month temperature outlook calls for increased chances of above-normal temperatures across much of the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico (Fig. 7, bottom).

Online Resources

Figures 1, 3 - National Centers for Environmental Information - ncei.noaa.gov
Figure 2 - Climate Assessment for the Southwest - climas.arizona.edu
Figure 4 - U.S. Drought Monitor - droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Figure 5 - National Hurricane Center - nhc.noaa.gov
Figure 4 - National Resource Conservation Service - nrcs.usda.gov
Figure 7 - International Research Institute for Climate and Society - iri.columbia.edu

Blog Category:

All Posts

Front Page Feature?:

Yes - Front Page

ENSOHUB:

Not part of ENSO Hub

MONSOONHUB:

Unrelated to SW Monsoon

DROUGHTHUB:

Non-Drought Hub Related

edriesen's blog

Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker -March 2021

Assistant Research Professor, Arizona Institutes for Resilience

Other Affiliations:

Assistant Professor of Anthropology, School of Anthropology

Southwest Climate Outlook March 2021 - Climate Summary

Assistant Research Professor, Arizona Institutes for Resilience

Other Affiliations:

Assistant Professor of Anthropology, School of Anthropology

Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - February 2021

Assistant Research Professor, Arizona Institutes for Resilience

Other Affiliations:

Assistant Professor of Anthropology, School of Anthropology

Southwest Climate Outlook February 2021 - Climate Summary

Assistant Research Professor, Arizona Institutes for Resilience

Other Affiliations:

Assistant Professor of Anthropology, School of Anthropology

Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - January 2021

Assistant Research Professor, Arizona Institutes for Resilience

Other Affiliations:

Assistant Professor of Anthropology, School of Anthropology

Southwest Climate Outlook January 2021 - Climate Summary

Assistant Research Professor, Arizona Institutes for Resilience

Other Affiliations:

Assistant Professor of Anthropology, School of Anthropology

Southwest Climate Outlook December 2020 - Climate Summary

Assistant Research Professor, Arizona Institutes for Resilience

Other Affiliations:

Assistant Professor of Anthropology, School of Anthropology

Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - December 2020

Assistant Research Professor, Arizona Institutes for Resilience

Other Affiliations:

Assistant Professor of Anthropology, School of Anthropology

Southwest Climate Outlook - El Niño Tracker - November 2020

Assistant Research Professor, Arizona Institutes for Resilience

Other Affiliations:

Assistant Professor of Anthropology, School of Anthropology

Southwest Climate Outlook November 2020 - Climate Summary

Assistant Research Professor, Arizona Institutes for Resilience

Other Affiliations:

Assistant Professor of Anthropology, School of Anthropology