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Forecast Roundup: Seasonal outlooks and forecasts focused on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and other oceanic and atmospheric indicators, all of which had generally remained consistent with a weak El Niño event (Figs. 1-2), at least until recently. On July 9, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology ended their ENSO Outlook and returned to ‘inactive’ status, identifying ENSO-neutral as the most likely outcome in 2019. On July 10, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) identified the end of this El Niño event, mostly due to the rapid dissipation of SST anomalies, as well as the return to normal for other atmospheric indicators. They called for a 60-percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions to continue into Fall 2019. On July 11, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) maintained their El Niño advisory based on the SST anomalies, but trends in oceanic and atmospheric conditions led them to expect this event would transition to ENSO-neutral in the next few months. On July 11, the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look (Fig. 3), highlighting above-average SSTs consistent with a weak El Niño, but with most models predicting a transition to ENSO-neutral status by the end of summer. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) shifted considerably in the last month, and now points towards a rapid decline to ENSO-neutral status by early fall (Fig. 4). (Read More)

Forecast Roundup: Seasonal outlooks are based on the persistence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies consistent with a weak El Niño event (Figs. 1-2), along with the presence of other atmospheric and oceanic indicators (convective anomalies, sub-surface temperatures). On June 10, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) noted persistent SST anomalies along with atmospheric and sub-surface indicators of El Niño, and called for a 70-percent chance of these conditions continuing into summer, and a 60-percent chance to last into fall. On June 11, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintained their ENSO Outlook at watch status, calling for a 50-percent chance of an El Niño event in 2019. (read more)

April Precipitation and Temperature: April precipitation was average to much above-average in most of New Mexico, while Arizona ranged from below-average to above-average (Fig. 1a). April temperatures were almost entirely above-average to much above-average across the Southwest (Fig. 1b), while temperatures so far in May have been mostly below-average. (read more)

March Precipitation and Temperature: March precipitation was average to above-average across most of Arizona, New Mexico and west Texas, while the upper basin of the Colorado River was much above-average (Fig. 1a). March temperatures were average to above-average in Arizona and New Mexico, despite most of the United States being average to below-average (Fig. 1b).read more

El Niño Tracker: Seasonal outlooks have mostly converged on forecasts that emphasize atmospheric and oceanic conditions consistent with a weak El Niño event. This is expected to last through spring, with a chance for a longer event if these conditions persist through summer and into fall. On Mar. 11, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) maintained their assertion of the presence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific and called for a 70-percent chance of these conditions lasting until summer 2019. On Mar. 14, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) maintained their El Niño advisory, given the convergence of oceanic and atmospheric conditions, as well as warm subsurface waters on the way, and their outlook jumped to an 80-percent chance of an El Niño lasting through spring (and 60-percent through summer). On Mar. 19, the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look (Fig. 1). (read more)