Forecast - June | July | August
Temperature
The three-month NOAA temperature outlook (June-August; Figure 5) favors chances for above-average temperatures in all of New Mexico and Texas through August.
Figure 5 (right): NOAA three-month temperature outlook (June-August). Forecast made on May 17, 2018 by CPC.
The forecast from CONAGUA´s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) for June predicts maximum temperature conditions with above-average anomalies in Baja California, Sonora, Nuevo León and northern Tamaulipas. In contrast, below-average anomalies are predicted in Central and Southeast Chihuahua. For July, SMN predicts above-average anomalies in Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Coahuila, and Baja California, while below-average anomalies are predicted in Sonora and Southwest Chihuahua (Figure 6).
Figure 6 (above): Predicted minimum temperature anomalies for northern of Mexico in (°C), June 2018 (left) and July 2018 (right). Forecast made on May 1, 2018 by SMN.
Precipitation
The NOAA three-month precipitation outlook predicts equal chances for below-average, average, or above-average precipitation for most of New Mexico and all of Texas through August (June-August; Figure 7). Chances for above-average precipitation is predicted for Northwest New Mexico during the same time period, due to the predicted transition to El Niño later in the summer to fall season.
Figure 7 (right): NOAA three-month precipitation outlook (June-August). Forecast made on May 17, 2018 by CPC.
For June, the SMN precipitation outlook predicts above-average conditions in Southwest Sonora and Chihuahua, and below-average conditions in Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Coahuila, Sonora and Baja California. The precipitation forecast for July shows above-average conditions in Northeast Baja California, Sonora and Chihuahua, and below-average conditions in Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Coahuila and Baja California (Figure 8).
Figure 8 (above): Predicted precipitation anomalies for northern Mexico (in %), June 2018 (left) and July 2018 (right). Forecast made on May 1, 2018 by SMN.
Fire
According to the North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook, hot, dry, and windy conditions in New Mexico and Texas resulted in high fire activity for both states over the past month. So far this year, Mexico has experienced 4,626 fires, with an area burned of 365,716 acres (just over 148,000 hectares). Forecasts for June indicate a westward movement in fire activity, with elevated fire potential in most of New Mexico and only the western tip of Texas (Figure 9; left). In Mexico, elevated fire potential is expected along the Sierra Madre Occidental and in northern Chihuahua. As the North American monsoon moves into the region towards the end of June and early July, fire potential decreases. For July, forecasts indicate normal fire potential for New Mexico, Texas, and most of Mexico except for the Sonora-Chihuahua border.
Figure 9 (above): Fire outlook for June (left) and July (right). Red shading indicates conditions that favor increased fire potential. Green shading indicates conditions that favor decreased fire potential. Forecast made on May 12, 2018 from NIFC and SMN.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean were indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions, as of early May (IRI; NOAA). Neutral conditions are forecasted to persist through summer and fall, with chances of El Niño nearing 50% by the winter (Figure 10). There is considerable uncertainty in ENSO forecasts made at this time of year; however, if forecasts are correct, it could mean a wet winter for the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico.
Figure10 (right): Probabilistic ENSO Forecast from IRI.
For more information in:
English: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/enso/enso-essentials/ and http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/.
Español: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/es/climatologia/diagnostico-climatico/enos and http://www.smn.gov.ar/?mod=biblioteca&id=68