Forecast - March | April | May
Temperature
The one-month NOAA temperature outlook (March; Figure 6) favors chances for above-average temperatures for most of New Mexico and the Texas-Mexico border through March. Chances for above-average temperatures increase further into the spring, according to the three-month NOAA temperature outlook (March-May; figure not shown), reflective of the influence of La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Figure 6 (right): NOAA one-month temperature outlook (March). Forecast made on February 15, 2018 by CPC.
The forecast from CONAGUA´s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) for March predicts below-average minimum temperature anomalies in the Baja California Peninsula, Northwest Sonora and western Chihuahua, and above-average conditions in Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Coahuila and Chihuahua. For April, SMN predicts above-average minimum temperatures in most of the northern border states, but mainly in Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Coahuila and Chihuahua, as shown in Figure 7.
Figure 7: Predicted minimum temperature anomalies for northern Mexico (in °C) for March (left) and April (right). Forecast made on February 1, 2018 by SMN.
Precipitation
The NOAA one-month precipitation outlook predicts increased chances for below-average precipitation for Central and southern New Mexico, and West and South Texas (March; Figure 8). Chances for below-average precipitation increase further into the spring, according to the three-month NOAA temperature outlook (March-May; figure not shown). Precipitation forecasts reflect the projections for continued La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with a transition to neutral conditions by May. La Niña conditions tend to lead to below-average precipitation in the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico.
Figure 8 (above): NOAA one-month precipitation outlook (March). Forecast made on February 15, 2018 by CPC.
For March, the SMN precipitation outlook predicts above-average conditions in eastern Chihuahua, Coahuila, western Nuevo León and southern Tamaulipas, and below-average conditions mainly in the Baja California Peninsula, Sonora, Chihuahua and northern Coahuila. Precipitation forecasts for April show above-average conditions in Northwest Baja California and Northeast Chihuahua, and below-average conditions in the rest of the Baja California Peninsula, Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila and Tamaulipas, as shown in Figure 9.
Figure 9: Predicted precipitation anomalies for northern Mexico (in %) for March (left) and April (right). Forecast made on February 1, 2017 by SMN.
Fire
According to the North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook, fires have already occurred in Texas in January, due to dry fuels and little winter precipitation. Fire risk will expand across the Southwest U.S. region and northern Mexico through April, due to below-average precipitation that will intensify drought conditions in the region (Figure 10). High fuel loads, coupled with the increasing frequency of wind events common during early spring in the region, will increase the risk of intense, fast-spreading fires. In Mexico, forecasts for warm and dry conditions greatly increase fire potential across northeastern Mexico from the Big Bend region to the Gulf Coast through April.
Figure 10 (above): Fire outlook for March (left) and April (right). Red shading indicates conditions that favor increased fire potential. Green shading indicates conditions that favor decreased fire potential. Forecast made on February 12, 2018 from NIFC and SMN.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
As of early-February, the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere remained consistent with weak to moderate La Niña conditions (IRI; NOAA). However, forecasts indicate a transition from La Niña to ENSO neutral conditions during the March-May season (Figure 11). Current La Niña conditions are still expected to affect temperature and precipitation over the next few months in states along the U.S. southern border and in northern Mexico, as illustrated in the latest forecasts that call for above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation through May.
Figure 11 (above): ENSO probabilistic forecast from IRI.
For more information in:
English: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/enso/enso-essentials/ and http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/.
Español: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/es/climatologia/diagnostico-climatico/enos and http://www.smn.gov.ar/?mod=biblioteca&id=68