Forecast - May | June | July
Temperature
The one-month NOAA temperature outlook (May; Figure 5) favors chances for above-average temperatures in New Mexico and most of Texas through May. According to the three-month NOAA temperature outlook, chances for above-average temperatures are expected throughout the remainder of summer (June-July; figure not shown).
Figure 5: NOAA one-month temperature outlook (May). Forecast made on April 19, 2018 by CPC.
The forecast from CONAGUA´s National Meteorological Service (SMN) for May, predicts above-average maximum temperatures in Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, northern Coahuila, Nuevo León and western Tamaulipas. In contrast, below-average anomalies are expected in western Coahuila. For June, SMN predicts above-average anomalies in Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Coahuila, northern Chihuahua, northern Sonora and Baja California, while below-average anomalies are expected in southern Chihuahua (Figure 6).
Figure 6 (above): Predicted minimum temperature anomalies for northern of Mexico in (°C), May 2018 (left) and June 2018 (right). Forecast made on April 1, 2018 by SMN.
Precipitation
The NOAA one-month precipitation outlook predicts increased chances for below-average precipitation for most of New Mexico and Northwest Texas (April; Figure 7). Chances for near-normal precipitation is predicted for both New Mexico and Texas going further into spring and summer, according to the three-month NOAA temperature outlook (May-July; figure not shown).
Figure 7: NOAA one-month precipitation outlook (May). Forecast made on April 19, 2018 by CPC.
For May, the SMN precipitation outlook predicts above-average conditions in western Chihuahua. In contrast, SMN predicts below-average precipitation in Tamaulipas, Nevo León, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Sonora and the Baja California Peninsula. The precipitation forecast for June shows above-average conditions in Southwest Sonora, while below-average conditions are predicted in Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Coahuila, northern Chihuahua, northern Sonora and Baja California (Figure 8).
Figure 8 (above): Predicted precipitation anomalies for northern of Mexico (in %), May 2018 (left) and June 2018 (right). Forecast made on April 1, 2018 by SMN.
Fire
According to the North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook, elevated fire potential will continue in the southern and central Plains, although retreating more toward the high plains of Colorado, West Texas, and eastern New Mexico. As summer conditions increase, higher potential expands across southern New Mexico and southern Arizona (Figure 9). In Mexico, fire potential will remain elevated across the western and eastern mountain chains with some elevated potential in the central states, and will continue to worsen due to increasing hot and dry conditions in northern and Central Mexico. Fire potential will also increase in the Yucatan, Chiapas, and Oaxaca due to above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation.
Figure 9 (above): Fire outlook for May (left) and June (right). Red shading indicates conditions that favor increased fire potential. Green shading indicates conditions that favor decreased fire potential. Forecast made on April 13, 2018 from NIFC and SMN.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
Tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures during March were still slightly below average and overall conditions were consistent with a rapidly weakening La Niña event (IRI; NOAA). Forecasts favor the transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions in Spring with a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions during summer (Figure 10). 
Figure10 (above): Probabilistic ENSO Forecast from IRI.
For more information in:
English: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/enso/enso-essentials/ and http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/.
Español: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/es/climatologia/diagnostico-climatico/enos and http://www.smn.gov.ar/?mod=biblioteca&id=68