Forecast - April | May | June
Temperature
The one-month NOAA temperature outlook (April; Figure 5) favors chances for above-average temperatures for most of New Mexico and Texas through April. Chances for above-average temperatures increase further into the spring and summer, according to the three-month NOAA temperature outlook (May-June; figure not shown).
Figure 5 (right): NOAA one-month temperature outlook (April). Forecast made on march 15, 2018 by CPC.
The forecast from CONAGUA´s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) for April, predicts maximum temperatures with above-average anomalies in Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Coahuila, Sonora, Baja California, and some regions of the middle and southern Chihuahua, and below-average anomalies are expected in Northeast Chihuahua. For May, SMN predicts above-average temperature anomalies in Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Coahuila, Chihuahua and in the border between Sonora and Baja California (Figure 6).
Figure 6 (above): Predicted minimum temperature anomalies for northern of Mexico in (°C), April 2018 (left) and May 2018 (right). Forecast made on March 1, 2018 by SMN.
Precipitation
The NOAA one-month precipitation outlook predicts increased chances for below-average precipitation for most of New Mexico, and parts of West and South Texas (April; Figure 7). Chances for below-average precipitation increase further into spring and summer, with increased chances covering almost all of both states, according to the three-month NOAA temperature outlook (May-June; figure not shown).
Figure 7 (right): NOAA one-month precipitation outlook (April). Forecast made on march 15, 2018 by CPC.
For April, the SMN precipitation outlook predicts above-average conditions in northern Baja California and below-average conditions in Tamaulipas, Nuevo León, Coahuila, Chihuahua and Sonora. The precipitation forecast for May shows above-average conditions in Northeast Nuevo León and Tamaulipas and below-average conditions in the rest of Nuevo León, Coahuila, Chihuahua, Sonora and Baja California Peninsula (Figure 8).
Figure 8 (above): Predicted precipitation anomalies for northern Mexico (in %), April 2018 (left) and May 2018 (right). Forecast made on March 1, 2018 by SMN.
Fire
According to the North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook, fire potential will expand from the southern plains to the Southwest deserts due to below-average temperatures and precipitation forecasted through the end of spring. Fire risk will expand across the Southwest U.S. region and northern Mexico through May, as dry conditions spread quickly and support potential for ignitions (Figure 9). Dry, pre-greenup fuels coupled with windy and dry spring conditions will increase the potential for ignitions and rapid fire spread rates. In Mexico, forecasts for warm and dry conditions greatly increase fire potential across northeastern Mexico from the southern states and across the Yucatán.
Figure 9 (above): Fire outlook for April (left) and May (right). Red shading indicates conditions that favor increased fire potential. Green shading indicates conditions that favor decreased fire potential. Forecast made on March 12, 2018 from NIFC and SMN.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
As of early March, La Nina conditions have weakened, but are still present in the east-central Pacific Ocean, as reflected by below-average sea surface temperatures (IRI; NOAA). Forecasts favor a transition from La Niña to ENSO neutral conditions during the March-May season with ENSO neutral conditions continuing through the summer (Figure 10).
Figure 10 (above): ENSO probabilistic forecast from IRI.
For more information in:
English: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/enso/enso-essentials/ and http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/.
Español: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/es/climatologia/diagnostico-climatico/enos and http://www.smn.gov.ar/?mod=biblioteca&id=68