December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag Episode

December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag Episode

Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins sharpened their pencils, hit the library, and did their homework to bring you a very special MailBag episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast for this month.  Thank you to all the listeners for sending in your questions and for trying to stump our hosts.  This episode is not to be missed - so grab a cup of coffee and get ready to be schooled before heading off for the end of semester break.  And have a Happy Holidays from the Southwest Climate Podcast crew!

Mentions:

Question 1: We are based in Northeast New Mexico in the I-25 corridor. What is the predominant drivers of summer weather and precipitation.  Are we full-on monsoonal, more influenced by plains state weather patterns, or somewhere in between? Dan

• The climate of the US Southwest, Sheppard et. al. 2002

Question 2: There seemed to be an abundance of DCAPE this season, which is perhaps related to all the strong winds and hail we had this monsoon. what is DCAPE? Sarah

Question 3: It seems that an albedo effect after a good snowpack tends to influence/add to a poor monsoon, to some degree, through delayed surface heating… Does that hold any water or stick to the wall? Mark

• Observed Influence of Soil Moisture on the North American Monsoon: An Assessment Using the Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment Method, Wang et. al. 2021

Question 4: I’m wondering whether there’s a clear “global warming” signal yet in the monsoon? Sarah

• Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network, Demaria et. al. 2019
• Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming, Pascale et. al. 2017
• Increasing Future Precipitation in the Southwestern US in the Summer and Its Contrasting Mechanism With Decreasing Precipitation in the Spring, Liang et. al. 2022
• The North American Monsoon precipitation response to climate warming at convection-permitting scales, Wallace et. al. 2023
• Future Land Precipitation Changes Over the North American Monsoon Region Using CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations, Hernandez et. al. 2022

Question 5: We're wondering if anyone is studying whether climate change could eliminate the North American Monsoon as we know it and leave Arizona high and dry during the annual monsoon. Bruce & Joanna 

• Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation, Tierney (2nd) et. al. 2017

Question 6: Like many people in the Tucson area I'm engaged in a lot of outdoor activities, and during monsoon these activities get pushed further up the mountains for temperature reasons. One thing that is always a complicating factor is trying to read the weather pattern to determine whether we're going to get dumped on or caught in a storm. Some clouds pass right over without a peep, others seem to become a problem quite suddenly.  Are there a few tips you can share for how to read the different monsoon clouds? Neal in Tucson