Regional Impacts Timeline

Timeline of Seasonal El Niño Impacts in the Southwest

  Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Weather & Climate Increased Tropical Storm Activity     Increased Chance of Above Average Precipitation  
    Risk of Extreme Cold Temps Reduced      
Human Health Air Quality (Pollen) Extended Season for Disease Vectors (Mosquitos)        
Hydrology   Water Year Recap     Increased Flooding Potential Potential La Niña Rebound
Wildfire   Growth of Fine Fuels - Wildfire Risk Potential       Fire Season

 

Autumn (Sept/Oct/Nov)

Autumn: Sept / Oct / Nov

Projected Impacts

  • Increased Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Activity
  • Air Quality Affected by Additional Pollen Loads
  • Extended Season for Mosquitos (Disease Vectors)
  • Above Normal Water-Year-to-Date Totals (2014-2015)
  • Increased Fine Fuels Growth

El Niño 2015-2016 & Tropical Cyclones

Jeremy Weiss, Michael Crimmins, Gregg Garfin, Paul Brown
Oct 2015

Most storms that form off of the western and southern coasts of Mexico move westward to open waters, but some of them travel north and bring considerable precipitation to the Southwest. Does an El Niño event influence the ability of these storms to form and later affect Arizona weather? If so, what might be some relevant related hazards or favorable circumstances? (read more)

Past Events/Impacts

Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb)

Winter: Dec / Jan / Feb

Projected Impacts

  • Extended Season for Disease Vectors (Mosquitos)
  • Risk of Extreme Cold Temps Reduced
  • Increased Chance of Above Average Precipitation
  • Increased Flooding Potential
  • Growth of Fine Fuels - Wildfire Risk Potential

Past Events/Impacts

Spring (Mar/Apr/May)

Spring: Mar / Apr / May

 

Projected Impacts

  • Increased Chance of Above Average Precipitation
  • Increased Flooding Potential
  • Potential La Niña Rebound (late spring)
  • Uncertainty about Wildire Season (fine fuels growth in late fall, early winter)

Past Events/Impacts