isaacpalomo's blog

Understanding Urban Heat Vulnerability and the need for Resilient Design Practice

isaacpalomo — Tue, 22 May 2018 21:23:18 +0000

Tuesday, May 22, 2018

**Disclaimer: This blog post was adapted from a term paper for Dr. Christopher Scott's, Adaptation and Resilience in Water Resources Systems seminar GEOG 6960. **

The U.S. Southwest is rapidly becoming an urbanized region that is characterized by an intense urban heat island and summertime heat waves. At the city scale, high levels of urbanization in addition to local rising surface temperatures can affect the quality of life for several areas across residential communities, public and commercial spaces, etc. Heat within cities arises from different ways in which the built environment impacts energy exchange between the surface and atmosphere. This relationship causes unevenly distributed heat patterns across urban areas and some places tend to be hotter than others. Implementing green infrastructure shows promise to enhance the resiliency of urban areas (Benedict and McMahon, 2012). However, this type of infrastructure fails to distribute equally as it tends to be situated along access gradients based upon income, race and ethnicity (Zuniga-Teran, 2017). The absence of green infrastructure and green spaces in low-income, marginalized communities may further increase the vulnerability to heat and augment stress to communities that are already at greater risk. How then can we reduce vulnerability to heat in low-income communities situated in South Tucson? In order to answer this question, we would first need to understand the nature of the problem to begin with.

Image 1: Baaghi TV, Pakistan. International breaking news.

Within the Southwest, cities are experiencing an unprecedented change in global climate temperatures that consist of above average temperatures and below average precipitation, and is characterized by a few notable extremes, excess heat and lack of water. In addition to climate change impacts, urbanization has had a dramatic effect in increasing higher temperatures, which this process is commonly referred to as the Urban Heat Island Effect (UHI). UHI increases the temperatures in urban territories and intensifies and prolongs the effects of heat waves, causing an increase in human discomfort, energy consumption during the summer time, and other adverse impacts (Filho et al. 2018). Heat waves can pose a serious threat to vulnerable individuals such as elderly people, infants, and those with physical impairments or those who can’t afford mitigation measures.

Extreme heat events are increasing in frequency in large U.S. cities and are responsible for a greater annual number of climate-related fatalities, on average, than any other form of extreme weather (Gurshanov et al. 2013). Over the past years, temperatures in Tucson have increased dramatically. In 2016, Tucson reached an all-time high of 116 degrees Fahrenheit which followed an excessive heat warning and several local agencies and governments issued a notice to people to stay indoors and prevent dehydration and other precautions (O' Gara, 2017). Between June 19th and June 25th, Tucson International Airport registered 7 straight days with a high temperature of at least 109°. This is the third longest streak on record, matching the 7 day stretch back in June 1994. Tucson’s high temperature on June 20th, 116 degrees fahrenheit, was the 2nd hottest daytime high ever recorded (Beamish, 2017). In assessing areas at a local scale, studies have shown that high levels of heat can be attributed to urbanization and human induced activities. Human induced activities include heat generated by vehicle combustion and industrial processes, the conduction of heat through the materials fabrication of the walls within buildings, and the metabolic heat produced by humans.

Image 2: Photo credit to Jeff Beamish. News 4 Tucson KVOA.COM. HEAT WAVE 2017: By the numbers

UHI results from growth of urban areas (urbanization), structural and land cover changes, as well as industrialization created by changes of heat absorbing surfaces, anthropogenic heat production, development of specific air circulation patterns (e.g. street canyons) and other factors (Filho et al. 2018). The U.S. has almost 81% of its population living in cities and towns. This high rate of urbanization will continue to increase the risk from heat waves for densely situated populations. Estimates from multiple sources including the United Nations predict that with the current rate of urbanization throughout this century, the world's population will reach 70% urban by 2050 and already, several metropolitan cities in the Southwest U.S. (Phoenix, Prescott and Tucson) are warming six times faster due to UHI (Zuniga-Teran, 2017 and Dalby, 2016). Despite the fact that climate change and global warming can be attributed to the rising global temperatures over the past 50 years, temperatures of the fastest warming U.S. cities are rising at a consistent rate with UHI supporting the claim that there is a strong relationship between the UHI and the urban configuration (Dalby, 2016).

Compared to rural areas, temperatures during nighttime in urban areas tend to be warmer, due to temperatures being trapped during the day. This is caused by multiple factors which include changes in thermal properties of surface materials, lack of evapotranspiration in urban areas and building heat blocked by buildings (Liang, 2012). Higher temperatures occur because dense concentrations of materials such as asphalt, concrete and buildings absorb more heat during the day and release it more slowly at night than natural ground cover such as soil and native vegetation (Dalby, 2016). Therefore, UHI can be reduced by implementing more passive natural systems that have high evapotranspiration rates: as the vegetation cover releases latent heat, green spaces can potentially cool surrounding areas, and can provide other ecological services to improve human comfort levels (Ahern, 2010).

Urban areas that lack sufficient and proper infrastructure are expected to be more vulnerable to the impacts of extreme events. Take for example, the Bravo Park Lane Neighborhood in South Tucson. The area tends to suffer from extreme heat during periods of above-average temperatures. The neighborhood lacks funding to provide for adequate infrastructure that could alleviate these impacts, such as investing in green infrastructure (G.I.) or creating green spaces the reduce temperatures. The area then fails to cope with excessive heat which translates to more energy used in buildings and subsequently higher energy bills. An assessment of the Bravo Park Lane Neighborhood was done in order to measure a communities’ vulnerability to heat. .

Since 2010, The Bravo Park Lane neighborhood has grown to a total population of 3,269 with a total of 1,504 household buildings (Statistic-atlas). Map 1 shows the current land use cover for the entire neighborhood. The neighborhood primarily consists of residential and commercial buildings structures built since the late 1980s that are accompanied with roads and impervious surface cover. Map 3 shows tree canopy data surrounding the neighborhood and reveals how the south side of Tucson contains less vegetation and tree canopies. Because vegetation is inversely related to heat, it is not surprising to see that the south side of the city is hotter, as shown in surface temperature Map 2. Due to high patterns of impervious cover land use and low adaptive capacity for the community to invest and initiate climate adaptation/mitigation programs, Bravo Park Lane Neighborhood can be considered a highly vulnerable community during extreme heat events. There is little participation of community to further augment greening street programs to offset UHI impacts towards the neirhborhood.

Map 1: Bravo Park Lane Neighborhood Regional Land Use Cover and Land Use Classification 2015 Map. PAG: Pima Association of Governments

Map 2: Bravo Park Lane Neighborhood Surface Temperatures 2015 Map. PAG: Pima Association of Governments

Map 3: Bravo Park Lane Neighborhood Tree Canopy Cover 2015 Map. PAG: Pima Association of Governments

Identifying specific factors that increase risk for some populations gives us a way to reduce exposure and vulnerability through adaptive actions. In some cases, simply increasing awareness of the risks that extreme heat poses to health can encourage people to take adaptive actions, such as going indoors or getting to a cooling center.

Especially in the case of Tucson, extreme heat during the summer months is a major public health issue (O'Brien et al. 2017). Efforts to mitigate heat in cities, such as the implementation of green infrastructure, including expansion of the urban tree canopy as well as revising design guidelines and principles for new construction, are increasing in the area. Moreover, based on the current urban fabric existing within tucson, there is an increasing demand for innovative design practices to combat the ever increasing vulnerability of cities to the negative impacts of urban heat. By reviewing the phenomenon that is the urban heat island effect and how it affects individual cities, we can begin developing alternative and effective strategies in adaptation and mitigation. Lessons that we can take from the UHI is that traditional, static built environment forms are no longer adequate nor efficient in a changing climatic world. Designers and planners are then tasked to propose innovative and improved open space designs that practice a greater care with the choices of construction materials in properties.

Image 2: Reimagining the STAR High School entrance in South Tucson, a high risk community to extreme heat events. This design strives to mitigate the extreme urban heat island effect present on the site and in the surrounding area by decreasing reflective materials and providing increased shade where these materials are necessary.

References

Ahern, J. 2010. Planning and design for sustainable and resilient cities: theories, strategies and best practices for green infrastructure
Benedict, M., & McMahon, E. (2012). Green Infrastructure: Linking Landscapes and Communities. The Island Press.
Beamish, J. 2017. Heat wave 2017: By the numbers. News 4 Tucson. KVOA.com.
Dalby, T. 2016. Understanding the impact of urban heat island effect in the southwestern u.s. Strategic Solar energy.
Filho, W., Echevarria Icaza, L., Neht, A., Klavins, M., & Morgan, E. (2018). Coping with the impacts of urban heat islands. A literature based study on understanding urban heat vulnerability and the need for resilience in cities in a global climate change context. Journal Of Cleaner Production, 171, 1140-1149. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.10.086
Gershunov, A., B. Rajagopalan, J. Overpeck, K. Guirguis, D. Cayan, M. Hughes, M. Dettinger, C. Castro, R. E. Schwartz, M. Anderson, A. J. Ray, J. Barsugli, T. Cavazos, and M .Alexander. 2013. “Future Climate: Projected Extremes.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine,R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, 126–147. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Liang, S., Li Xiaowen, J. Wang. 2012. Advanced remote sensing. Chapter 21-Land cover and land use changes. Pgs. 703-772.
O’Brien, Jonathan., Fanqui, J., Khan, R., Wilson, C. (2017). Assessing Urban Heat as it Relates to Social Vulnerability and Land Use Changes in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Develop.larc.nasa.gov
O’ Gara, Nick. 2017. Tucson heat wave: one record tied, one broken. Arizona Public Media news article. Available at: https://news.azpm.org/p/news articles/2017/6/20/112731-tucson-heat-wave-one-record-tied-one-broken/
Zuniga-Teran, A. and A. K. Gerlak. (2017). Engaging low-income communities in the development of a greenway in Tucson, Arizona. International Water Security Network.

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Green Infrastructure as a Climate Action Planning Strategy for the Southwest

isaacpalomo — Tue, 28 Nov 2017 23:26:02 +0000

Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Climate Change

The climate of southern Arizona is characterized by a few notable extremes, excess heat and lack of water. For the Pima County in the State of Arizona, average mean temperatures have been steadily increasing for the past 30 years.

Figure 1: West Wide Drought Tracker, created: 10-31-2017

Warm temperatures are one of the region’s most defining characteristics. According to the Western Regional Climate Center, in Arizona "high temperatures are common throughout the summer at the lower elevations and temperatures over 125 degrees F have been observed in the past”. The southwest region also records relatively low annual precipitation totals, averaging less than 12 inches of rainfall in the past year.

Figure 2: PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University

A large percentage of precipitation that does fall occurs as intense rainfall during the monsoon (Jun 15 – Sept 30). Current projections for the future climate of the Southwest including forecasts of gradually warming temperatures, more frequent and intense heat wave events, and increased uncertainty about precipitation along with increased incidence of drought.

Figure 3: Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States

Population growth and competition over water resources places increasing demands on existing water supplies, which are subject to demand from end-users and fluctuating levels related to temperature and precipitation patterns. In order for the Southwest to increase its capacity to respond effectively to future changes in climate, the region must begin to integrate innovative solutions that support sustainable development.

Figure 4: Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States

Climate Adaptation Strategies: Green Infrastructure

Sustainable development has grown in popularity as cities in the southwest are increasingly looking for new strategies to assess and respond to the anticipated future climate and environmental changes. Preliminary approaches for implementing sustainable development first begin with understanding the regions’ climate; there first needs to be a clear understanding of what is causing the problem in order to move forward and address the larger issues. For the Southwest, an issue that has become a priority concern is the increased frequency of drought from warming temperatures due to climate change, and how that will impact the supply of water in the near future. In order to conserve water, communities in arid and semi-arid climates are increasingly recognizing green infrastructure as a cost-effective approach that conserves water and also manages stormwater.⁶

Green infrastructure refers to a set of practices that mimic natural processes to retain and use stormwater. By promoting infiltration, evapotranspiration, and harvesting throughout the landscape, green infrastructure preserves and in some cases restores natural water balance.⁶ Commonly referred to as a Low impact Development (LID), the system consists of soils and vegetation that are used to manage stormwater through mimicking natural flow of water and use it for multiple benefits for both the environment and community. The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has a list of different G.I. elements that can be woven into a community, ranging from small scale to large scale elements spanning entire watersheds. Strategies that are commonly seen in metropolitan regions such as Tucson include rainwater harvesting collection systems (cisterns), rain gardens (also known as bioretention and bioinfiltration), bioswales and green streets (combination of street curb cuts and bioswales) (See .

Image 1 (above): Original Street Curb Cut, source: Harvesting Rain Water. Multi-use rain-garden plant lists: Invitations to Deeper and More-connected relationships

Image 2 (below): Street Curb Cut After Improvements, source: Harvesting Rain Water. Multi-use rain-garden plant lists: Invitations to Deeper and More-connected relationships.

When implemented properly, green infrastructure has the potential to create more resilient communities and further strengthen their ability to respond to climate vulnerability. In order to be effective however, a city’s green infrastructure initiative must incorporate different guiding principles, one of which includes place-based approaches. Place-based projects are site-specific and community based. Implementation of such projects incorporates the community with stakeholders and these dual partnerships engage to ensure the planning process recognizes distinctions within a city across ecological, social and cultural dimensions.¹

City-led Initiatives and Non-profit collaborations

The Southwest has a great capacity to respond to these alarming environmental stresses and to lead in ensuring stewardship with natural resources. One city within the Southwest that has already implemented place-based approaches regarding green infrastructure projects is Tucson. Tucson has established the Framework for Advancing Sustainability program where its intent is to create a decision-making framework that explicitly considers sustainability and facilitates sustainable development within the community. Under this framework, specific goals have been designed to address climate adaptation, which include the following:

Encourage public and private action in support of resilient social and economic systems that can withstand the stress induced by anticipated climate change impacts within the region
Provide outreach and education to the community to enable individuals and groups to take action to improve the sustainability of Tucson

A non-profit organization that is leading in implementing these goals is the Watershed Management Group. Watershed Management Group (WMG) is a Tucson based organization that has developed community based solutions that ensure long-term prosperity of people and the health of the environment. Most of the projects they develop include the ability to provide people with the knowledge, skills, tools, and resources needed to create sustainable livelihoods. They have identified the value in stormwater management through landscape design and have further implemented green infrastructure projects throughout the city of Tucson to conserve water and mitigate flooding while at the same time, educating the public realm. Their most notable work includes their Green living Co-op, their Green Streets Program, their Advocacy and Public Policy through the Community Water Coalition, and their 50 Year Program to restore Tucson’s free flowing rivers.

WMG’s work has led to direct impacts on the Tucson community. Their Green Streets Program builds partnerships with different companies, non-profits, neighborhoods and municipalities and encourages collaboration efforts between them to install green streets. Green streets help conserve water, reduce urban flooding and stormwater pollution while at the same time, lessening the urban heat island effect. In short, G.I. presents an opportunity for communities to partner with non-profits to make a significant impact in response to climate change. G.I. has a direct impact on climate change.

Direct impacts is seen in one of WMG’s large-scale projects, whom they partnered with the Pima County Regional Flood Control District (PCRFCD) to solve the flooding challenges faced by residents in an area south of the Airport Wash. G.I. retention capacities were assessed using 2-dimensional hydrological models for three different watersheds. Results showed that by implementing G.I. throughout the watersheds in a 25-year scenario would lead to $2.5 million dollars of annual community benefits as a result from of flood reductions, water conservation, property value increase, reduced urban heat island impacts.⁹ A cost benefit analysis was also included to assess the full range of benefits throughout the area south of the Airport wash.

Four main practices were evaluated for the cost benefit analysis (CBA): rain gardens, rain gardens with curb cuts, rain garden retrofits and green street water harvesting features. The benefits for the CBA were based on the inputs of the number and average size of trees planted, area of water-harvesting basins, and volume of water-harvesting basins. A graph of a 35-year projection of a rain garden cost and direct benefit showed conclusive results. For a 100 square foot rain garden, although the cost in the first year was over $600, by the end of 5 years, direct benefits would outweigh the costs significantly. After 10 years, revenue would increase exponentially.

Figure 5: Watershed Management Group pdf.

Future considerations

Different parts of the Southwest are experiencing drier and hotter conditions, much of which is attributable to climate change. As severe drought events are further depleting the current water supply, cities will find compelling reasons to explore alternatives to meet water demands⁷. In order to meet the needs of current water supply and demand, climate resilient strategies will be vital for the near future projections. One climate resiliency strategy that has shown tremendous benefits is G.I. G.I. describes an approach to managing stormwater, where vegetation is used to capture water and through the process of infiltration, water is stored below ground surfaces and later reused. In our current built environment, many homeowners use drinking water to irrigate their lawns. By implementing rain water catchment systems, potable water usage is ultimately reduced, which consequently leads to lowering the stress on the demand for water supply. Other benefits from G.I. practices include the ability to create greater air movement, reflection of heat, and provide shading that can cool urban environments.

Although stormwater management through green infrastructure may have many benefits within different climatic regions, there still exists overseen setbacks and barriers. One of the biggest barrier is the lack of funding. At least at the federal level, there is no single source of dedicated federal funding to design and implement green infrastructure solutions. Without assistance, communities take several approaches to financing wastewater and stormwater projects through the use of municipal bonds¹⁰, which may not always be the best alternative. However, there are a few helpful resources, such as the EPA’s financing options and resources for local decision-makers report, that discuss both pros and cons for several sources of funding for small-scale projects. Other barriers include the lack of information on performance overtime and cost-effectiveness, the uncertainty of water quality improvement and the maintenance required to maintain these systems over time.

References

Brown, Hannah J. (2017). Green Infrastructure: Best Practices for cities. U.S. Green Building Council. Advocacy and Policy section.
Pagnet.org. (2017). Green Infrastructure. (online) Available at: https://www.pagnet.org/Default.aspx?tabid=189. Accessed 19 Nov. 2017.
AdaptationClearinghouse (2008). City of Tucson, Arizona Framework for Advancing Sustainability. (online) Available at: http://www.adaptationclearinghouse.org/resources/city-of-tucson-arizona-.... Accessed 19 Nov. 2017.
MacAdam, James, T. Syracuse, J. DeRoussel, and K. Roach. (2012). Green Infrastructure for Southwestern Neighborhoods. Watershed Management Group.pdf.
Garfin, G., A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, eds. (2013). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Liverman, D., S. C. Moser, P. S. Weiland, L. Dilling, M. T. Boykoff, H. E. Brown, E. S. Gordon, C. Greene, E. Holthaus, D. A. Niemeier, S. Pincetl, W. J. Steenburgh, and V. C. Tidwell. (2013). “Climate Choices for a Sustainable Southwest.” In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment, edited by G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy, 405–435. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Green Infrastructure in Arid and Semi-Arid Climates: Adapting innovative stormwater management techniques to the water-limited West. (2009). Retrieved from https://www3.epa.gov/npdes/pubs/arid_climates_casestudy.pdf
Lancaster, B., J. MacAdam, J. Miller, K. Roach, C. Shipek, L. Shipek, J. Silins, S. Somnath, T. Syracuse. (2011). The Ripple Effect Annual Report. Watershed Managent Group.
(2015). Solving Flooding Challenges with Green Stormwater Infrastructures in the Airport Wash Area. Watershed Management Group in collaboration with Pima County Regional Flood Control District. Pdf.
Copeland, Claudia. (2016). Green Infrastructure and Issues in Managing Urban Stormwater. Congressional Research Service

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The Near and Distant Future of El Niño

isaacpalomo — Mon, 10 Mar 2014 07:00:00 +0000

Monday, March 10, 2014

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), better known simply as El Niño or La Niña, is normally a hot topic in the Southwest. La Niña is associated with dry winters, as we experienced most recently during 2010–2012, while El Niño winters generally are soakers. Both events occur, on average, every two to seven years, but lately not much has been happening; neutral conditions continue to dominate the tropical Pacific Ocean, leaving us to wonder what’s to come in the near and distant future.

Up until recently, scientists have been unsure about what will happen to ENSO in a future warmer climate. However, over the past several months a couple of papers have been published arguing that we do know what will happen: El Niños will be more frequent and the patterns they drive—such as more rain in the Southwest—more intense.

Before we delve into the details of the studies, let’s review briefly the mechanics of ENSO (see ENSO summary). During normal, “neutral” conditions, winds push warm surface water from the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean westward (Figure 1). As this warm water pools in the western tropical Pacific, the hot surrounding air rises, condensing into clouds and leading to rain. This air then travels east, where it descends off the coast of South America, leaving the air at the surface dry.

Figure 1: The tropical Pacific Ocean during ENSO neutral conditions. Colors indicate sea surface temperatures. Photo courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center at NOAA.

During La Niña events the winds driving this circulation pattern intensify, which strengthens the whole cycle, yielding even warmer water in the western tropical Pacific and cooler water in the east. In contrast, during El Niño events, the winds slacken and the warm water sloshes back towards the east, leading to convection (clouds and storms) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. As a result, wet conditions hit some regions such as the Southwest U.S. and coastal Peru and Ecuador, while dry conditions settle over other parts of the globe such as Australia.

Now that we’ve had the elevator speech version of ENSO, we can explore some new results. The authors of two new papers, published in Nature and Nature Climate Change, used the most up-to-date climate models to determine any future changes to ENSO. The Nature paper, published in October, found most of the climate models agree that by the mid- to late 21st century the patterns driven by El Niño—wetter winters in the southwestern U.S. and drought in Australia, for example—will become more intense. In other words, we could see even more rain and flooding in the Southwest. These findings are profound because this agreement among climate models regarding future ENSO variability hadn’t occurred before.

Another paper, published in January in Nature Climate Change, also found agreement among climate models, but this time in terms of the frequency of extreme El Niño events, like the ones that occurred in 1982–1983 and 1997–1998. The authors argue that as the climate warms, the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean will warm faster than the surrounding waters, increasing the occurrence of convection in the eastern ocean—in other words, making El Niño events more frequent. In fact, the models show extreme El Niño events will double by the end of this century.

Now, you may be thinking, “More frequent and intense El Niños is great news—we can always use more rain in the Southwest!” That‘s partly true. But we have to remember that the extreme El Niño in 1982–1983 led to severe flooding in the region (Figure 2), and while we may see more rain, Australia may see less, exacerbating severe drought conditions.

Figure 2: Flooding in October 1983 in Tucson, AZ. Top panel: Santa Cruz River from St. Mary’s Bridge. Bottom panel: Collapsed townhouse development along the Rillito River. Photographs from USGS.

What does any of this mean for the prediction of El Niño and La Niña events? Right now forecasting can, for the most part, predict events six months in advance. Can these new studies change that? They could possibly inform forecasting models, but their purpose is more for predicting events on a general, longer-term basis.

However, authors of a controversial new paper, published in January in PNAS, claim they have found a way to predict El Niño and La Niña events up to one year in advance. They argue that certain patterns of air temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean compared to the rest of the basin can be indicative of an impending El Niño event the following year. Using this scheme, they predict a 75% chance of an El Niño developing later this year.

A Phys.org article illustrates the controversial nature of this paper. Even the authors themselves admit they are making bold claims: “We are aware of the reputational risks associated with our announcement, yet formulating falsifiable hypotheses is at the heart of the scientific method. Should our alarm turn out to be correct, however, this would be a major step toward better forecasting—and eventually understanding—of the ENSO dynamics.”

It appears that they may be correct—the Climate Prediction Center with NOAA also forecasts a similar chance of El Niño development later this summer (Figure 3). But are the authors correct because their forecasting method really works, or is it just pure luck?

Figure 3: Most Climate Prediction Center models predict ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through the spring. Either neutral or El Niño conditions are forecast to develop during the summer (graph from NOAA Climate Prediction Center).

I asked Mike Crimmins, climatologist at the University of Arizona and regular SWCCN blog contributor, what his thoughts are regarding these new findings. He leans towards the side of luck. “It is certainly interesting and has some provocative results, but I am not convinced they have nailed the ENSO forecasting problem and may get the forecast right for this year just by luck,” Crimmins says. And since the analyses they used to build their forecasting model span a relatively short time period, Crimmins argues that “this probably means they uncovered a pattern that is consistent for a couple of events, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that it has predictive power over the long run.”

So we may not have extended our short-term ENSO forecasts just yet, but it does seem that we’ve learned a lot recently on how climate change may affect ENSO in the long term. Given more time, our knowledge will only grow and improve our predictive capabilities, and if current predictions are correct, we may be in for a wet winter!

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Oases in the Desert: What Do Altered Water Regimes Mean for Sonoran Desert Species?

isaacpalomo — Mon, 19 Aug 2013 07:00:00 +0000

Monday, August 19, 2013

Author: Clare Aslan

A coyote lopes across Silverbell Road in Tucson, crossing Christopher Columbus parking lot in the pale predawn of late spring. He pauses to drink at the fish-stocked Silverbell Lake. A hummingbird zips over his head, alights momentarily on a low branch, and takes off again. The tramp of light hooves announces the arrival of a family of javelina—two young in tow—at the water’s edge.

In strange contrast to the scene, the low hum of constant car traffic along Silverbell Road and I-10 permeates the air. Houses and industrial complexes can be seen in the distance. This oasis with its steady flow of wildlife is not a part of the open desert. Rather, it is a new ecological community, coalescing around an artificial water source created by human redistribution of water.

In the desert Southwest, urbanization increasingly alters the availability and distribution of water. Due to groundwater mining and surface water diversion, natural riparian and spring habitats are disappearing. To compensate for this loss of natural sources, artificial water sources in open deserts are commonly developed by wildlife managers and environmental impact mitigators. Water from natural sites is often sequestered in urban areas, which contain water-rich features such as parks, golf courses, and botanical gardens. Many native species visit urban water sources. Other species visit artificial water sources in the open desert but rarely or never enter urban areas.

It is clear that both artificial water sources themselves, as well as the moisture-loving vegetation in proximity to the water, can provide essential resources for a variety of desert species. For some species, the presence of artificial water may make urban areas critical stopovers along migratory pathways. For other urban-adapted species, the new concentration of resources in urban areas may generate high reproductive rates. But visitation to water sources in urbanized regions may also expose native species to urban dangers, such as window strikes, cars, domestic cats, and diseases. Urban areas could therefore represent ecological traps: attractive locations promising resources but delivering high mortality rates. If mortality exceeds successful reproduction in these sites, they become “sinks,” exerting an overall negative impact on species populations.

Importantly, climate change models predict increased drought severity in arid lands. This will lead to even further reductions in natural water sources and enhanced reliance on artificial water sources among desert wildlife.

In our capacity as a community-centered natural history center devoted to enhanced understanding of the Sonoran Desert, the Arizona-Sonora Desert Museum has a long history of conservation-relevant research in the region. One of our current research foci is the role of artificial water sources in the broader Sonoran Desert ecological community. Some of our specific research questions include:

Which native species use artificial water in urban sites, open desert, and the transition zones between them?
How do the presence and characteristics of artificial water affect the reproductive rates and body condition of desert species?
How do the presence and characteristics of artificial water affect ecological processes such as pollination and seed dispersal?
How do the presence and characteristics of artificial water sources affect mortality rates of desert species?

To explore these questions and others at artificial water sources throughout the Tucson region, we are partnering with citizen scientists including museum visitors, students, volunteers, and neighborhood associations. These partnerships increase the number of eyes on the ground, allowing us to gather a rich set of data that can help us more fully understand the circumstances under which artificial water sources can benefit desert species. The research can also help connect Tucsonans with the desert surrounding them. The project is just getting underway, with training of volunteers and listing of potential visitor species; preliminary findings are expected later this fall.

If you or your group would like to be involved in this effort, additional volunteer opportunities will be available soon. Together, we can build our understanding of the importance of our cities for the species of the Sonoran Desert.

Contact Kim Franklin at kfranklin@desertmuseum.org or Clare Aslan at caslan@desertmuseum.org for more information.

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How to Create a Sustainable Southwest: Part 2

isaacpalomo — Tue, 30 Jul 2013 00:57:33 +0000

Saturday, June 29, 2013

Continuing the theme from previous blogs, this post completes the Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest U.S. blog series with another perspective from one of the coordinating lead authors of the chapter on adaptation and solutions, “Climate Choices for a Sustainable Southwest.” Susanne Moser, the Director and Principal Researcher of Susanne Moser Research & Consulting, is a leading expert on adaptation, science-policy interactions, decision support, and climate change communication. Below she gives her opinion on the same questions we’ve asked the other authors in this series.

What do you consider to be the most dreaded or threatening impact(s) to the SW region, and how might they affect the average citizen?

Moser: I am not sure it's overly useful to think about just one threat that cuts across and is pertinent to everyone in the region in terms of dread or threat. Psychologists tells us that we experience the greatest sense of dread with things that come unexpectedly, are truly terrifying, and that we don't have much if any control over. So the folks in Oklahoma City who had a massive tornado barrel through their part of town may have experienced quite a bit of dread. My sense is lack of control is probably the biggest factor.

Changing streamflow timing 2001-2010 compared to 1950-2000. Differences between 2001-2010 and 1950-2000 average date when half of the annual streamflow has discharged (center of mass) for snowmelt-dominated streams (Steward, Cayan and Dettinger, 2005). From Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest, Chapter 5.

Now take the Southwest Climate Assessment—it makes a big point about the region as a whole becoming drier both because higher temperatures will dry out soils more, and our snowpack will melt and run off sooner (see figure, left), but also because there is a good chance the region will get less rain and snowfall overall. That is definitely a big threat for a region that’s already dry, with lots of people vying for those limited resources. But it becomes a dread only if you ignore the warnings now and don't reduce the causes of climate change, and don't prepare for longer dry periods and their impacts. So if you are a water manager with a big, deep reservoir, these projections may worry you less than if you are a relatively small rancher or farmer with only junior water rights—you simply don't have as many choices to prepare for the impacts of a drier climate. So, to you, this could be rather dreadful news.

Many Arizona farmers depend on irrigation water from the Central Arizona Project (CAP), but climate change could reduce flow on the Colorado River, CAP’s water source, an impact that could trickle down to farmers as well as metropolitan water users. Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

And so we can look to every sector—water, agriculture, forestry, coastal areas, public health; to every part of the Southwest—the mountains, the deserts, rural and urbanized areas; and to different sets of decision-makers—business leaders, city planners, firefighters, county health departments, tribes, port engineers, parents, what have you—and for everyone the set of threats, and what are truly dreaded impacts will be different. Our challenge is to help people see what the threats are, and what options they have to deal with them, and if possible expand those options and help people implement them so that we reduce the amount of paralyzing dread.

What is the biggest barrier, and greatest opportunity, for dealing with these impacts?

Moser: Again, that depends on who you are, what decisions you make, in what region or sector you find yourself. In one study I was involved in in coastal California, we found governance barriers to be the biggest challenge for local officials—the constraints that arise from the fact that we have institutions and procedures set up in ways that suited the climate and situation of the 20th century, but that are not dynamic and adjusted enough to fit the rapidly changing climate of the 21st century. And of course lack of funding or constraints on how available money can be used also pose big barriers. Interestingly, though, the next biggest barrier was about attitudes, about people's mindsets. To me, that means that to deal with the changes that are coming takes good leaders, people who are willing to make things happen even though they are hard, people who understand that we're in a critically urgent situation and who have the mindset that we will rise to the challenge. It's like the Chinese proverb goes: "Anyone saying it cannot be done: get out of the way of the people doing it." In our study we found people like this again and again, and it's giving me hope that we can deal with the impacts of climate change before they get catastrophic.

What do you wish your local or regional decision-makers would focus on, in order to deal with climate change challenges?

Moser: Three things: (1) Think not just short-term, but take your public interest mandate seriously and consider the longer-term as well. (2) Think and act not just within your (limited) area of responsibility, your most immediate mandate, but always seek the points of connection to other issue areas. That way we will solve our problems more systemically, not in a piecemeal, disconnected fashion. Nothing in life or nature is disconnected from anything else, just the way we try to think and deal with them. And I dare you: look at the world—how well has that piecemeal fasion worked for us? And (3) Be courageous. Nothing worth doing in the face of a planetary emergency can be done with small-minded, small-hearted approaches. Connect with allies. Find a way to break down barriers to "enemies"—find a way to work together. Speak the truth, and follow through so you have integrity in what you do. People will gather 'round such leaders. It's the people we find inspiring that we will follow. And so, you will get the support you need to push the tough things through. Sure, some will not like it (or you). But truth and integrity are magnets. We need courageous leadership.

What do you view as the most surprising or significant NEW result from your chapter since the 2009 National Climate Assessment?

Moser: I contributed to two chapters in the SWCA. In the coastal chapter (ch.9), we have a lot better information now about what coastal professionals can do, what they are doing, and what gets in the way for them in terms of preparing more for the impacts of a rising ocean level. So, knowing that helps scientists produce more decision-relevant science, but it also helps higher-level policy-makers to develop supportive policies and mechanisms to help local folks adapt to climate change.

In the solutions chapter (ch. 18), we looked region-wide at all the ways in which we can (and already do) reduce the causes of global warming, and prepare for those impacts that are already occurring or that will still unfold because of the momentum behind climate change. Even if we stopped all emissions tomorrow—all over the globe—the warming and changes in the climate would still continue for several decades, so we simply have no choice but to deal with the continually unfolding effects of a warming planet. In the 2009 report, we simply didn't have much information on either the mitigation or the adaptation side at all. We show how big the challenge before us really is, how we have no time to waste and postpone dealing with the problem any longer if we want to have any chance at doing our fair share in reducing these heat-trapping emissions. But we also put meeting that challenge into the context of how early settlers of the Southwest have made tremendous changes to the landscape, how we were able to think wisely and with foresight in terms of preserving the natural riches of this region. Oh, and not to forget, how our Native peoples have lived here for thousands of years and eked out a living and thriving culture in sometimes rather inhospitable environments. We give a number of examples of how people in every state of the Southwest, at every level of government and in the private sector, are leading by example. So, while we concluded it's a big challenge we have before us, we also feel it can be done. We can do it!

What are you most interested in learning more about next?

Moser: Personally, I am most interested in some of the bigger, transformative changes that we quite likely need to tackle, both in terms of our energy and transportation systems (i.e. on the mitigation side) and in terms of adapting our ways of life, where and how we live, to the changing climate. The incremental small steps will only take us so far.

There will likely come a time when we need to think bigger in terms of solutions. We don't know much about that yet, and I think it's not only interesting, but a moral obligation that we in the sciences get on the ball and have some answers when people come to us for answers some years from now. It's not enough for us to just study what is happening as it's happening. We should have some well-thought out solutions, developed together with stakeholders (not on our own!), that can be implemented when people wake up to the royal mess we've created for ourselves. I anticipate people will get creative and be able to come up with good solutions, but if we don't think some of these big ideas through now, we could face even more havoc and lots of very unhappy people. To me, doing science that will serve us living on this planet—or even just in our small corner of it here in the Southwest—in a peaceful, satisfying and environmentally sane manner is science worth doing.

*For more information on the Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States, including a full-color pdf of the book, how to order a hard copy, and two-page fact sheets of each chapter, see www.swcarr.arizona.edu.

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Hotter Temperatures May Wreak Havoc on SW Energy Infrastructure

isaacpalomo — Tue, 09 Jul 2013 00:31:54 +0000

Monday, July 8, 2013

Climate change could substantially impact the energy system in the Southwest through less efficient power generation, reduced electricity distribution, and threats to energy infrastructure—all while peak energy demands increase. In this blog, the fourth in a series about the recently released Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest U.S., I expand upon these and other key findings from Chapter 12, which describes the vulnerability of our energy system to climate change. Then coordinating lead author Vince Tidwell, from Sandia National Laboratories, contributes his opinion.

Before we get to how climate change may affect energy in the Southwest, let’s first discuss the current energy infrastructure. As of 2009 (all of the following numbers are from 2009; EIA 2010), the Southwest produced about 12.7% of the nations’ total energy, an increase of 180% from 1960. Of that, 43% was natural gas, 21% crude oil, 19% coal, 10% renewable energy, and 7% nuclear. California, Colorado, and New Mexico were among the nation’s top ten energy-producing states, with California specializing in crude oil and renewable energy production, and Colorado and New Mexico specializing in natural gas production.

Similarly, the Southwest consumed 12.1% of the nation’s total energy (including transportation, industrial, residential, and commercial sectors)—up 255% from 1960. Overall in the region, demand was met by petroleum products (42%), natural gas (32%), coal (13%), renewables (8%), and nuclear power (5%). California dominated consumption, followed distantly by Arizona and Colorado. However, on a per-person basis, California and Arizona had the lowest consumption with 220 million British Thermal Units (BTUs) per person and New Mexico had the highest with 330 BTUs per person.

Looking ahead, climate change has the potential to wreak havoc on our energy infrastructure in a variety of ways. The Assessment authors address potential impacts—as well as adaptation strategies—in several categories:

Energy demand: As temperatures increase, especially summer daytime highs, peak period electricity demands for home and commercial summer cooling will increase.

Electricity generation:

Natural Gas: Warmer temperatures could decrease the capacity and efficiency of natural gas turbines. Other types of electric power plants also may be affected by warming, including coal, nuclear, wind, solar, bio-power, and geothermal. Adaptation measures that could be implemented include installing new types of cooling equipment and expanding existing capacity.

Hydropower: Hydropower generation could be impacted by several factors, such as changes in runoff due to decreased precipitation and increased evaporation, earlier snowmelt, and shifts in the frequency of extreme events. To mitigate these impacts, the authors suggest efficiency upgrades at existing hydroelectric facilities, development of new low-impact facilities, and altered reservoir operations.

Thermoelectric: Thermoelectric generation could become limited by reduced water supplies stemming from drought, which could cause the surface of a reservoir to drop below intake structures, limit the access to water, or raise water discharge temperatures above environmental limits. Mitigation and adaption options include integrated strategic water-energy planning, utilization of non-potable water sources for cooling, and using dry-cooled systems.

Electricity distribution:

Transmission line capacity: Higher temperatures will increase demand for electricity while decreasing the carrying capacity of transmission lines. Two options for coping with and avoiding decreased capacity are to 1) reduce line capacity requirements by producing a larger fraction of power at or near the destination, and 2) place transmission lines underground.

Substation/Transformer capacity: Higher ambient temperatures and high minimum temperatures can affect transformer performance and reduce the peak-load capacity of banks of transformers in substations. Based on the projected number of days with maximum temperatures greater than 95°F, the southern and eastern parts of the Southwest are more at risk of reduced substation peak capacity. One adaptive strategy utility planners can take to offset future losses and increase substation capacities is to proactively install new types of cooling.

Energy infrastructure:

Wildfire risk to electricity transmission: Not only can wildfires—which are predicted to increase in size and frequency due to climate change—physically destroy transmission lines, but they can also affect the capacity of a line through heat, smoke, and particulate matter. The effects of firefighting, such as aircraft dumping loads of fire retardants or preventive shutdowns, can also affect transmission operations. These impacts could be reduced by such means as increasing fire corridors around transmission lines, using transmission line materials that can withstand high heat, and building excess transmission capacity.

Sea-level rise and coastal inundation risk to power plants and substations: In California, coastal energy infrastructure will be at higher risk due to rising sea level, increasing high tide levels, more frequent extreme surge events at high tides, and accelerated shoreline erosion. Adaptive measures include building higher levees to protect existing power plants and constructing new plants at higher elevations, farther from the ocean.

Cost of climate change: Any increase in energy prices due to climate change, such as increased demand and higher temperatures putting stress on the system, will have a direct impact on consumers. Climate policies limiting greenhouse gas emissions, while beneficial for limiting climate change and reducing air pollution, have the potential to increase energy costs to consumers.

Figure 1: Schematic of how climate change may impact energy infrastructure in the Southwest.

Figure 12.5 from Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States.

I asked Tidwell his opinion on energy and climate change in the Southwest:

What do you consider to be the most dreaded or threatening impact(s) to the SW region, and how might they affect the average citizen?

Tidwell: Drought I believe is of most concern. Most people will realize impacts through the discomfort of heat, and irrigation restrictions on their lawns and gardens. Others will be impacted through loss of recreational opportunities such as closed forests, low water for boating/rafting. Farmers will feel the pinch through reduced yields or lost crops/livestock. There are also impacts to the ecosystem through wildfires and beetle kill, which affects everyone.

What is the biggest barrier, and greatest opportunity, for dealing with these impacts?

Tidwell: In terms of opportunity, a strong drought will raise attention and encourage the public/decision-makers to work together to take action. The barrier is the multiplicity of interrelated issues and the great variety of values placed on water and the environment.

What do you wish your local or regional decision-makers would focus on, in order to deal with climate change challenges?

Tidwell: Development of “shortage sharing” agreements in times of drought. That is, expedited plans for dealing with limited streamflow and reservoir levels. Most of New Mexico’s water is adjudicated and will take many years to complete the adjudication process. We need plans for the interim.

What do you view as the most surprising or significant NEW result from your chapter since the 2009 National Climate Assessment?

Tidwell: Drought/heat waves have the potential to impact the electric power system in numerous ways. Although in each case the impacts are relatively small, together they add up. Specific impacts include: increased demand, reduced efficiency in electricity generation, reduced power line capacity, reduced transformer capacity, reduced hydropower production, threatened thermoelectric power production due to limited water availability, and impacts of wildfire on transmission capacity.

What are you most interested in learning more about next?

Tidwell: I was part of the author team for the Water-Energy-Land chapter for the 2013 [National Climate Assessment]. I would like to see a similar chapter developed and explored for the Southwest regional analysis. These cross-sector interactions are of particular interest to me.

In our next two blogs, we’ll wrap up the series discussing adaptation and mitigation options, as well as what’s already being done in Southwest states to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Coordinating lead authors Diana Liverman, from the University of Arizona, and Susanne Moser, from Susanne Moser Research and Consulting, will give their opinions on the above questions.

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Climate Change Increases Risk to Human Health

isaacpalomo — Thu, 06 Jun 2013 23:43:58 +0000

Thursday, June 6, 2013

The fifteenth chapter of the Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States, entitled “Human Health”, explores the current state of knowledge with regards to climate-related public health threats, such as respiratory ailments from dust and fire-related particulate matter, changes in disease transmission and risk, and heat-related morbidity and mortality. In this blog, I outline key findings from the chapter, and talk with Heidi Brown from the University of Arizona, one of the coordinating lead authors, to get her take on some topics not included in the chapter.

Key findings: When it comes to climate impacts on health in the Southwest, the authors focus on three areas—air quality, heat extremes, and diseases:

Air Quality: Current knowledge of ozone and air pollution is inadequate to project future health impacts with any certainty. Rising temperatures will accelerate atmospheric chemical reactions which could increase ozone and particulate matter concentrations. But changes in other factors such as wind speed and relative humidity will also influence pollutant concentrations. Another impact of rising temperatures could be an increase in cases of allergies and asthma due to earlier and longer spring bloom for many plant species. The authors have the most confidence (medium-high) in the influence of wildfires, however. As wildfires increase in frequency and size due to climate change, they will increase particulate matter levels, subsequently effecting respiratory health (see figure).

Smoke from wildfires increases particulate matter in the air, effecting respiratory health. Figure 15.5 of Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States. 2010 Wildfire in Great Sand Dunes National Park, Colorado. © University Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

Heat Extremes: Heat waves are predicted to increase in frequency, intensity, spatial extent, and duration through the rest of the century. In addition, “future heat waves are expected to be more humid, with higher overnight low temperatures.” All of these factors will likely increase heat-related morbidity and mortality in the Southwest. Other features of heat-related impacts include: coastal and high-altitude areas will likely see greater risk of heat-related mortality and morbidity due to their relatively low peak temperatures and being less adapted to heat, absolute risk will continue to be high in hotter areas, and the size of the at-risk population will increase due to a shift in demographics towards an older population. In general, “disadvantaged populations are expected to bear a greater burden from climate change as a result of their current reduced access to medical care and limited resources for adaptation strategies.”

Vector-borne disease: Diseases transmitted through a vector, such as mosquitos or fleas, will change significantly as climate warms. The life cycles of vectors are highly influenced by temperature and other climate factors through increased population growth and faster reproductive cycles, increasing the contact rate between vector and host. In addition, the ranges of vectors may change in the future, exposing some previously unexposed populations to new disease and no longer exposing some currently exposed populations.

In addition to the topics above, the authors discuss adaptation and mitigation strategies. In particular they find that strategies tailored to the specific vulnerabilities of a region will lessen the health impacts of climate change described above. Another observation is that so far, the health sector has been more involved in adapting to climate change (through approaches such as surveillance and first-alert systems) than in mitigating it, however, evidence is increasing that certain mitigation policies also provide health benefits. For example, reducing greenhouse gas emissions will also reduce emissions of particulate matter and ozone, and reducing vehicle emissions by promoting walking and bicycling also improves the health of individuals.

I talked to Heidi Brown to gain some insight into health topics not discussed in the chapter:

What do you consider to be the most important impacts to the SW region, and how might they affect the average citizen?

Brown: With respect to health: heat and heat-related illness, wildfires, and the uncertainty surrounding some of the other health issues. One of the more disconcerting scenarios is the idea of a long, hot, humid heatwave that coincides with a brownout, leaving the region without a means to cool off.

What is the biggest barrier, and greatest opportunity, for dealing with these impacts?

Brown: Adaptive capacity: we have certain populations now who are without access to the medical care they need. Climate change will disproportionately affect these populations. Ensuring these populations and their needs are met will be one of the major challenges. On the other hand, public health response can be developed such that there is an immediate improvement for current health outcomes as well as developing future capacity.

What do you wish your local or regional decision-makers would focus on, in order to deal with climate change challenges?

Brown: Public health is responding. Climate change is being incorporated into emergency preparedness planning. Coordinating across regions and responders while keeping the plans sensitive to the needs of individual communities will be one of the important challenges.

What do you view as the most surprising or significant NEW result from your chapter since the 2009 National Climate Assessment?

Brown: There are a lot of interesting findings: the increase in heat-related illness resulting from more hot and more humid heatwaves, wildfires and the resulting respiratory illness, changes in disease distributions, to name a few. But what I find most interesting is how much better we've gotten at quantifying those changes. We're becoming more able to provide estimates of the magnitude of change expected. These numbers are particularly important for planners.

What are you most interested in learning more about next?

Brown: My expertise is vector borne disease and there is still a lot of work to be done in understanding how vector borne disease will change. Will they move into or out of regions? Will the season start earlier or last longer? That said, one of the areas I find most interesting from this report is the movement for public health to become involved in mitigation. The ideas that things like promoting bicycling to reduce emissions, with the benefit of also having a positive influence on health and helping to combat the obesity epidemic, is an impressive thing for a public health person like me to hear. Figuring out how to incorporate this notion and to put some cost on it will be a very interesting task.

In our next blog we’ll focus on the energy system and how climate change may impact it. Vince Tidwell from Sandia National Laboratories and coordinating lead author of the energy chapter will provide his insights.

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Fire, Heat, Pests, Among Expected Ecosystem Threats

isaacpalomo — Thu, 23 May 2013 00:09:11 +0000

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

In our last blog, Gregg Garfin introduced the Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States. This week, we focus on the ecosystems chapter (Chapter 8: Natural Ecosystems) where Coordinating Lead Author Erica Fleishman from University of California, Davis and a dozen other authors describe observed changes in geographic distributions and phenology (timing of life cycle events such as blooming and migrations) in southwestern ecosystems. They also examine disturbances affecting ecosystems such as wildfires and outbreaks of forest pathogens.

Key findings from the chapter include:

Observed changes in climate are associated strongly with some changes in geographic distributions of species and some observed changes in phenology. For example, bud formation and flowering is occurring 1.5 days earlier per decade in western North America with increases in winter and spring temperatures, and for over a decade climate change has been shifting the first springtime appearance of American robins and egg-laying by Mexican jays to earlier in the year.
Wildfires and outbreaks of forest pests and pathogens are associated strongly with observed changes in climate, particularly higher temperatures and lower precipitation.
- Between 1997 and 2008, over 12% of southwestern forests died from bark beetles, and as of 2010, “bark beetles were estimated to have affected more than twice the forest area burned by wildfires in Arizona and New Mexico in recent decades.”

Area of large (>1,000 acre [400 ha]) wildfires that burned lands dominated by forest and woodland and managed by the U.S. Bureau of Indian Affairs, U.S. National Park Service, and U.S. Forest Service in Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Data from Westerling, Turner, Smithwick et al. (2011 online supplement); U.S. Department of the Interior (2008 fire data); and U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The area of southwestern forests burned from 1987 to 2003 was more than 300% relative to the area burned during the 1970s and early 1980s (see figure to the right; Figure 8.2 from Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States). “The National Research Council projected that if temperature increases by 1.8°F (1°C), there will be a 312% increase in area burned in the Sierra Nevada, southern Cascades, and coast ranges of California; a 380% increase in the mountains of Arizona and New Mexico; a 470% increase on the Colorado Plateau; and a 656% increase in the southern Rocky Mountains.
Responses to climate change will vary by species, both native and non-native. There’s no clear evidence that non-native species will reproduce or survive any better than native species in the future. However, if climate changes do increase the probability of non-native species survival, then their high dispersal rates, rapid growth, high reproductive capacity, and “ability to adapt to short-term environmental variability may increase the probability they will become established and persist, in some cases quite rapidly.”

I talked with Fleishman to get her take on some topics not included in the chapter:

What do you consider to be the most important impacts to the SW region, and how might they affect the average citizen?

Fleishman: I think decreases in availability of water are among the climatic changes most likely to affect ecosystems and society in the Southwest. Regulations on agricultural, industrial, and domestic water use may increase, which could affect prices of many commodities and amenities. Additionally, probability of fire and associated loss of life and property may increase as vegetation becomes drier and more flammable.

What is the biggest barrier for dealing with these impacts?

Fleishman: In my personal opinion, the greatest barrier is current lack of political will, societal will, and financial incentives for all sectors to use water more efficiently.

What do you view as the most surprising or significant NEW result from your chapter since the 2009 National Climate Assessment?

Fleishman: Estimates of changes in the location, frequency, and sizes of fires have become more robust, and understanding of interactions between different causes of vegetation change and probability of fire has increased substantially. This information may contribute to decisions about management of fire in wildlands and at the urban-wildland interface.

What are you most interested in learning more about next?

Fleishman: I am interested in learning more about the extent to which information on climate and climate change is likely to support decision-making in the Southwest, and then to use my knowledge and skills to help provide or interpret that information.

Next week I’ll discuss how climate change is impacting human health, and we’ll hear from Coordinating Lead Author Heidi Brown from the University of Arizona.

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Living with Climate Change: A local-level understanding of climate-change adaptation from rural Arizona

isaacpalomo — Thu, 18 Apr 2013 22:43:40 +0000

Thursday, April 18, 2013

This blog is the second in a two-part series about using feedback from rural Arizonans to improve climate change adaptation research in the region.

In my last blog, I wrote that discussions with many groups of rural Arizonans revealed that they are highly aware of and concerned about changes that are occurring in our weather and climate, and that they already are engaged in adaptation efforts. What to do with that information? We used qualitative methods to analyze the group discussions, and then developed a model of rural Arizonans’ approach to climate change adaptation. Table 1 illustrates this model by categorizing activities that participants brought up in discussion. The left column lists activities that reveal how local residents adjust their activities to the climate, an approach we refer to as “living with the climate.” The right column lists activities which participants brought up as examples of disregard for the climate. These reflect an approach to adaptation we refer to as “overcoming the climate,” a concept of engineering the environment so that human activities can take advantage of positive aspects of the climate while being buffered from negative aspects. This logic ignores the interdependence of human society and nature that “living with the climate” addresses.

Table 1: Living with the climate.

This contrast helps to bring out several important aspects of a particular local approach to adaptation that are extremely important for climate change adaptation researchers and policy-makers to keep in mind in order to be able to recognize and support a wide range of locally relevant adaptation strategies. First, in “living with the climate,” human society and nature are seen as intertwined: what happens in each affects the other. Second, “living with the climate” depends primarily on situated knowledge acquired through local practice and experience, while “overcoming the climate” is based primarily on scientific and technical knowledge that follows rules that can be formally taught and applied anywhere. A final difference between these two approaches to adaptation is one of values and attitude. “Living with the climate” is motivated by attachment to place and rural values, and is undertaken with an attitude of humility in the face of uncertainty, while “overcoming the climate” is motivated by an ideology of economic maximization and confidence in the efficacy of science and technical expertise.

Given their concerns about the climate changes they are experiencing, discussion participants had many suggestions about what could be done to live with them. We used their suggestions to extend “living with the climate” to a model of their approach to climate change adaptation, which we refer to as “living with climate change.” Many of the suggestions build on their ideas about “living with the climate” and attempt to extend it to higher levels of social organization and longer time frames using the same five underlying characteristics identified above. These characteristics are summarized in the left column of Table 2.

Table 2: Living with climate change versus adapting to climate change.

An understanding of these underlying characteristics also helps us to see some of the underlying characteristics and the potential effects of the expert understanding of climate change adaptation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third and Fourth Assessment Report defines adaptation as: “the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.” We refer to this conception of climate change adaptation as “adapting to climate change,” with an emphasis on the “to.” These underlying characteristics bear some similarities to those of “overcoming the climate” and are summarized in the right column of Table 2.

The contrasts between the underlying characteristics of “living with climate change” and “adapting to climate change” suggest that adaptation planning and support based on the latter may not have the breadth and flexibility to recognize and support a wide range of locally relevant adaptation strategies. By pointing out these contrasts, we do not mean to suggest that these are opposing, good-bad, rural-urban, autonomous-planned, or small- versus large-scale approaches to adaptation. Nor do we mean to suggest that “living with climate change” is the preferred alternative to “adapting to climate change.” Rather we wish to suggest that the former helps point the way toward a more comprehensive understanding of climate change adaptation based on recognition of the nature-society mutuality, which encompasses and integrates situated and abstract knowledge, performance and planning, adjusting human activities and engineering the environment, and non-economic and economic values, and recognizes when each is appropriate. And because neither “living with” nor “adapting to” incorporates the possibility of transformation of the biophysical or social environment, a more comprehensive understanding should also recognize that possibility.

The term “Anthropocene” was first proposed to describe the current geological epoch by atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen and biologist Eugene Stoermer in 2000 in recognition of the major and growing impacts of humans on the earth and atmosphere at all scales and “to emphasize the role of mankind in geology and ecology.” While climate change is perhaps the most prominent among the physical phenomena that have forced this conceptual shift, the preceding discussion reveals that the dominant approach we are using to understand climate change adaptation is still based on the separation of ‘nature’ and ‘society’ at the underlying level of our understanding of the nature of being and knowledge. We hope that our research will contribute to the development of new approaches to understanding and supporting climate change adaptation in the Anthropocene.

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Living with Climate Change: A local-level understanding of climate-change adaptation from rural Arizona

isaacpalomo — Thu, 11 Apr 2013 22:26:56 +0000

Thursday, April 11, 2013

This blog is the first in a two-part series about using feedback from rural Arizonans to improve climate change adaptation research in the region.

As physical scientists help us learn more about climate changes that may occur with global warming, social scientists focus on how we can adapt to those changes. However, because the interacting effects of both climate change and social forces are highly complex, uncertain, and localized, physical and social scientists may be more effective in addressing the challenges that climate change poses by joining forces and working together in interdisciplinary teams.

In 2011, Mike Crimmins, a climatologist, and I, an anthropologist, both with the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) at the University of Arizona--and with funding from NOAA's Climate Program Office in support of the U.S. Global Change Research Program's National Climate Assessment--conducted a study designed to learn how federal agencies could provide climate-related information and programs to better meet the needs of rural Arizonans. But in order to understand what kind of information rural Arizonans would find relevant and useful, we first needed to understand the context in which it would be used, including the ways that rural Arizonans typically understand, plan for, and respond to weather and climate in their daily lives.

Thus we held a series of group discussions in eight of Arizona’s fifteen counties, organized with the help of University of Arizona Cooperative Extension. Participants included rural residents from a variety of groups for whom weather and climate are a significant factor in their work or lives, and who had lived in the county varying lengths of time. We started the discussions by asking each participant to tell a story that would illustrate how weather or climate affected his or her life, and the discussions just took off from there.

We learned that rural Arizonans are highly attuned to weather and climate in their daily lives and are constantly adjusting to the dry and highly variable climate of Arizona. The weather/climate-related topic that emerged as by far most important to them is water. In the context of an extended drought, drought and wildfire were the topics that generated the most concern. We did not ask specifically about climate change, but in every discussion, participants spoke of changes they are experiencing in the weather and climate patterns they are accustomed to: the current drought is lasting longer; monsoon rainfall is more “spotty” but often more intense and destructive; winters are not as cold and snowy; temperatures, variability, and extremes are increasing. While they were hesitant to attribute these changes to “climate change,” a politically charged topic, they clearly were concerned about the effects of these changes on their lives, communities, and local environment and motivated by attachment to the place they live to take steps to address them.

The discussions revealed that adaptation is a process in which rural Arizonans are constantly engaged, although not solely in response to climate. In the next blog I'll describe the model we developed based on these discussions. It enriches our understanding of climate change adaptation at the local level, and points to directions for the development of new approaches to understanding and supporting climate change adaptation.

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Unrelated to SW Monsoon

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Non-Drought Hub Related

isaacpalomo's blog

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References

The Near and Distant Future of El Niño

Oases in the Desert: What Do Altered Water Regimes Mean for Sonoran Desert Species?

How to Create a Sustainable Southwest: Part 2

Hotter Temperatures May Wreak Havoc on SW Energy Infrastructure

Climate Change Increases Risk to Human Health

Fire, Heat, Pests, Among Expected Ecosystem Threats

Living with Climate Change: A local-level understanding of climate-change adaptation from rural Arizona

Research Scientist, School of Natural Resources and the Environment

Living with Climate Change: A local-level understanding of climate-change adaptation from rural Arizona

Research Scientist, School of Natural Resources and the Environment